Football · Brazil Paulista Women · 26/08, 23:30

Prediction: Palmeiras (W) vs Bragantino (W)

Team pages: Palmeiras (W) · Bragantino (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Palmeiras (W)1.86

Bragantino (W)0.77

1X2

63% 23% 14%

Palmeiras (W) Draw Bragantino (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Palmeiras (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDLWWW

Bragantino (W) 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLWDDD

Head-to-head

Palmeiras (W) 3–3–0 Bragantino (W) (6 last)

Bragantino (W)1-2Palmeiras (W)
Palmeiras (W)1-0Bragantino (W)
Bragantino (W)2-2Palmeiras (W)
Palmeiras (W)0-0Bragantino (W)
Palmeiras (W)1-0Bragantino (W)
Bragantino (W)2-2Palmeiras (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Palmeiras (W) 1611 · Bragantino (W) 1537

	Palmeiras (W)	Draw	Bragantino (W)
Our model	62%	24%	14%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Palmeiras (W) (rating 1611 vs 1537).
H2H favours Palmeiras (W): 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Palmeiras (W)	Bragantino (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.5	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.20

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:21 +11’	1.42	4.20	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Palmeiras (W) 3–3–0 Bragantino (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Bragantino (W)	1-2 HT 1-2	Palmeiras (W)
01/11/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Palmeiras (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Bragantino (W)
22/06/25 Brazil Paulista Women	Bragantino (W)	2-2 HT 2-0	Palmeiras (W)
23/03/25 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Palmeiras (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Bragantino (W)
29/09/24 Brazil Paulista Women	Palmeiras (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Bragantino (W)
20/03/24 Brazil Serie A1 Women	Bragantino (W)	2-2 HT 2-0	Palmeiras (W)

Standings · Brazil Paulista Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferroviaria (W)	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
2	Palmeiras (W)	6	4	1	1	9	2	13
3	Sao Paulo (W)	6	4	0	2	7	4	12
4	Corinthians (W)	6	3	1	2	14	6	10
5	Bragantino (W)	6	1	4	1	4	9	7
6	Santos (W)	6	1	3	2	5	6	6
7	Taubate (W)	6	1	1	4	6	9	4
8	Mirassol (W)	6	0	1	5	2	18	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Palmeiras (W)	Bragantino (W)
Taubate (W)	1-0 W	1-1 D
Corinthians (W)	1-0 W	0-6 L
Sao Paulo (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Ferroviaria (W)	1-2 L	0-0 D
Santos (W)	0-0 D	1-1 D
Mirassol (W)	5-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Palmeiras (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Palmeiras (W)

WDWLWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-0	10	1	W
30/07	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
18/07	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
21/05	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
15/05	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
06/05	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	5-0	5-0	5	5	W
14/12	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
07/12	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	3-0	5-1	6	7	W
04/12	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-1	1	3	D
23/11	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	2-0	6	4	W

Bragantino (W)

LLWWDLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
29/07	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
17/07	Mirassol (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
22/05	Sao Paulo (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
14/05	Corinthians (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-3	0-6	8	1	L
06/05	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	1-1	10	0	D
16/11	Santos (W) Brazil Paulista Women	2-2	3-2	2	4	W
12/11	Taubate (W) Brazil Paulista Women	3-0	4-1	8	3	W
09/11	Ferroviaria (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-1	0-3	6	3	L
01/11	Palmeiras (W) Brazil Paulista Women	0-0	0-1	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Palmeiras (W) vs Bragantino (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Palmeiras (W) win (63%). Probabilities: Palmeiras (W) 63%, draw 23%, Bragantino (W) 14%.

How many goals are expected in Palmeiras (W) vs Bragantino (W)?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Palmeiras (W) 1.86 · Bragantino (W) 0.77), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras (W) vs Bragantino (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.