Football · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · 04/09, 20:45

Prediction: Derry City (W) vs Cliftonville (W)

Team pages: Derry City (W) · Cliftonville (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.56Total

Derry City (W)1.28

Cliftonville (W)3.28

1X2

7% 11% 82%

Derry City (W) Draw Cliftonville (W)

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Derry City (W) 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWLLLW

Cliftonville (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Derry City (W) 0–6 Cliftonville (W) (6 last)

Cliftonville (W)5-1Derry City (W)
Derry City (W)1-3Cliftonville (W)
Cliftonville (W)3-0Derry City (W)
Derry City (W)1-3Cliftonville (W)
Cliftonville (W)6-0Derry City (W)
Derry City (W)0-3Cliftonville (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Derry City (W) 1483 · Cliftonville (W) 1648

	Derry City (W)	Draw	Cliftonville (W)
Our model	11%	14%	75%
Market	4%	8%	87%

Estimated total (ours) 4.56 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cliftonville (W) (rating 1483 vs 1648).
H2H favours Cliftonville (W): 6-0-0.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Derry City (W)	Cliftonville (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	4.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.8 / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

121.00

X11.00

21.07

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.98

2 (-3)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.93

Under 4.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 4.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +7’	21.00	11.00	1.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City (W) 0–0–6 Cliftonville (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/06/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Cliftonville (W)	5-1 HT 1-0	Derry City (W)
17/04/26 Northern Ireland League Cup Women	Derry City (W)	1-3 HT 0-3	Cliftonville (W)
29/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Cliftonville (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Derry City (W)
16/05/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Derry City (W)	1-3 HT 0-2	Cliftonville (W)
11/04/25 Northern Ireland League Cup Women	Cliftonville (W)	6-0 HT 2-0	Derry City (W)
06/09/24 Northern Ireland Premier League Women	Derry City (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Cliftonville (W)

Standings · Northern Ireland Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cliftonville (W)	13	12	0	1	61	10	36
2	Linfield (W)	12	9	1	2	56	13	28
3	Glentoran (W)	12	9	1	2	47	12	28
4	Lisburn Rangers (W)	13	7	1	5	30	28	22
5	Crusaders Strikers (W)	13	3	4	6	22	51	13
6	Derry City (W)	13	4	1	8	24	29	13
7	Lisburn (W)	13	1	2	10	6	50	5
8	Larne FC (W)	13	0	2	11	7	60	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Derry City (W)	Cliftonville (W)
Lisburn (W)	1-0 W	7-0 W
Linfield (W)	1-2 L	3-1 W
Lisburn Rangers (W)	0-3 L	3-0 W
Glentoran (W)	0-1 L	2-1 W
Larne FC (W)	7-0 W	8-0 W
Crusaders Strikers (W)	3-3 D	9-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Cliftonville (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Derry City (W)

WWLLDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
14/08	Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
09/08	Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
31/07	Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/07	Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	4-0	7-0	6	0	W
03/07	Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
28/06	Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-2	1-3	1	1	L
19/06	Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-1	1-5	–	–	L
29/05	Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	2-1	6-1	–	–	W
22/05	Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	5	1	W

Cliftonville (W)

WWLWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	6	5	W
14/08	Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
10/08	Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	1-1	3-1	9	1	W
07/08	Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	4-0	8-0	11	2	W
03/08	Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	0-0	3-1	6	4	W
31/07	Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	5-0	9-0	–	–	W
24/07	Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	3-0	7-0	9	0	W
10/07	Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	2-2	3-4	–	–	L
26/06	Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	1-0	3-0	14	2	W
19/06	Derry City (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women	1-0	5-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Derry City (W) vs Cliftonville (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cliftonville (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Derry City (W) 7%, draw 11%, Cliftonville (W) 82%.

How many goals are expected in Derry City (W) vs Cliftonville (W)?

The model expects 4.56 goals (Derry City (W) 1.28 · Cliftonville (W) 3.28), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Derry City (W) vs Cliftonville (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.