Football · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · 24/07, 20:45
Prediction: Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.7Total
Derry City (W)3.35
Larne FC (W)1.35
1X2
Derry City (W)
Draw
Larne FC (W)
Markets
Over 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Derry City (W)
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Larne FC (W)
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derry City (W)
4–1–1
Larne FC (W)
(6 last)
- Larne FC (W)1-6Derry City (W)
- Derry City (W)4-0Larne FC (W)
- Derry City (W)1-0Larne FC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derry City (W) 1493 · Larne FC (W) 1394
| Derry City (W) | Draw | Larne FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 88% | 7% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.7 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derry City (W) (rating 1493 vs 1394).
- H2H favours Derry City (W): 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City (W) | Larne FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 2.4 | 0.7 / 3.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 0.2 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/0/40% | 0/10/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.9 | 1.7 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City (W) 4–1–1 Larne FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/26 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Larne FC (W) | 1-6 HT 1-2 | Derry City (W) |
| 22/04/26 Northern Ireland League Cup Women | Derry City (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Larne FC (W) |
| 01/10/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Larne FC (W) |
| 15/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Larne FC (W) |
| 23/05/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Larne FC (W) | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Derry City (W) |
| 20/09/24 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Larne FC (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Derry City (W) |
Standings · Northern Ireland Premier League Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linfield (W) | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Glentoran (W) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 5 | 16 |
| 3 | Cliftonville (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 15 |
| 4 | Lisburn Rangers (W) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 5 | Crusaders Strikers (W) | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 27 | 11 |
| 6 | Derry City (W) | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 23 | 7 |
| 7 | Lisburn (W) | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 29 | 4 |
| 8 | Larne FC (W) | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 31 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derry City (W) | Larne FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Crusaders Strikers (W) | 3-3 D | 2-2 D |
| Glentoran (W) | 1-3 L | 0-5 L |
| Cliftonville (W) | 1-5 L | 0-3 L |
| Lisburn (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Lisburn Rangers (W) | 2-3 L | 0-3 L |
| Linfield (W) | 0-5 L | 0-9 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 4 L | 0 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Derry City (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Bangor FC (W) Northern Ireland Cup Women |
6-0 | 9-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/07 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 28/06 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Larne FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Sion Swifts (W) Northern Ireland Cup Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 03/07 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 19/06 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Derry City (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | Glentoran (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 15/05 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-5 | 0-9 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 08/05 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 01/05 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 22/04 | Derry City (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City (W) win (82%). Probabilities: Derry City (W) 82%, draw 10%, Larne FC (W) 8%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)?
The model expects 4.7 goals (Derry City (W) 3.35 · Larne FC (W) 1.35), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City (W) vs Larne FC (W)?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.