Football · Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women · 23/08, 07:00

Prediction: Canberra Croatia FC (W) vs Belconnen United (W)

Team pages: Canberra Croatia FC (W) · Belconnen United (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Canberra Croatia FC (W)1.29

Belconnen United (W)2.05

1X2

24% 22% 55%

Canberra Croatia FC (W) Draw Belconnen United (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Canberra Croatia FC (W) 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWDWDWW

Belconnen United (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWDWWW

Head-to-head

Canberra Croatia FC (W) 0–2–4 Belconnen United (W) (6 last)

Belconnen United (W)1-1Canberra Croatia FC (W)
Canberra Croatia FC (W)1-1Belconnen United (W)
Belconnen United (W)2-0Canberra Croatia FC (W)
Belconnen United (W)3-1Canberra Croatia FC (W)
Belconnen United (W)1-0Canberra Croatia FC (W)
Canberra Croatia FC (W)1-2Belconnen United (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Canberra Croatia FC (W) 1594 · Belconnen United (W) 1621

	Canberra Croatia FC (W)	Draw	Belconnen United (W)
Our model	23%	23%	54%
Market	24%	21%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Belconnen United (W): 4-2-0.
High corners: 17.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Canberra Croatia FC (W)	Belconnen United (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	4.6 / 0.4	5.5 / 0.3
Goals for / against (HT)	2.2 / 0.2	2.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 6.5	4.6 / 10.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.7 / 0.1	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.70

X4.33

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 2.65 · xG: 5.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.84 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.57 → 1.61▲	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
09:52 +5’	4.00	4.33	1.57
11:47 +3’	3.60▼	4.50▲	1.61▲
23:04 +10’	3.70▲	4.33▼	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:10 +1’	4.87	3.99	1.49
05:01 +4’	4.73▼	4.00▲	1.50▲
06:02	4.84▲	4.07▲	1.51▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Canberra Croatia FC (W) 0–2–4 Belconnen United (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/07/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Canberra Croatia FC (W)
31/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Canberra Croatia FC (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Belconnen United (W)
03/05/26 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Canberra Croatia FC (W)
07/09/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	3-1 HT 0-0	Canberra Croatia FC (W)
10/08/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Belconnen United (W)	1-0 HT 1-0	Canberra Croatia FC (W)
22/06/25 Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	Canberra Croatia FC (W)	1-2 HT 0-2	Belconnen United (W)

Standings · Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Belconnen United (W)	19	17	2	0	125	6	53
2	Canberra Croatia FC (W)	19	14	4	1	83	7	46
3	Canberra Olympic (W)	19	10	3	6	40	20	33
4	Tuggeranong Utd (W)	19	4	3	12	17	56	15
5	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W)	19	4	2	13	14	79	14
6	Majura FC (W)	19	0	2	17	1	112	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Canberra Croatia FC (W)	Belconnen United (W)
Majura FC (W)	6-0 W	13-0 W
West Canberra Wanderers FC (W)	8-0 W	7-0 W
Canberra Olympic (W)	1-1 D	3-0 W
Tuggeranong Utd (W)	4-0 W	7-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Belconnen United (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Canberra Croatia FC (W)

DWWWWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	6-0	6-0	14	0	W
09/08	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	8-0	5	0	W
02/08	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
26/07	Tuggeranong Utd (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	3-0	4-0	9	0	W
12/07	Belconnen United (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
05/07	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	3-0	11-0	10	0	W
28/06	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	3-1	8-1	9	2	W
21/06	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	3	0	W
14/06	Tuggeranong Utd (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	6	0	W
31/05	Belconnen United (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-1	1-1	1	1	D

Belconnen United (W)

WDWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	3-0	11	0	W
09/08	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	5-0	13-0	16	0	W
02/08	Tuggeranong Utd (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	4-1	7-1	18	1	W
12/07	Canberra Croatia FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
05/07	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
28/06	Majura FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	6-0	10-0	13	0	W
21/06	Tuggeranong Utd (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	5-0	8-0	18	0	W
14/06	West Canberra Wanderers FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	4-0	7-0	5	1	W
31/05	Canberra Croatia FC (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-1	1-1	4	1	D
24/05	Canberra Olympic (W) Australia Capital Territory Premier League Women	1-0	3-0	10	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Canberra Croatia FC (W) vs Belconnen United (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Belconnen United (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Canberra Croatia FC (W) 24%, draw 22%, Belconnen United (W) 55%.

How many goals are expected in Canberra Croatia FC (W) vs Belconnen United (W)?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Canberra Croatia FC (W) 1.29 · Belconnen United (W) 2.05), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Canberra Croatia FC (W) vs Belconnen United (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.