Prediction: Colchagua CD vs Lota Schwager
Expected goals: 2.22 (Colchagua CD 1.4 · Lota Schwager 0.82). The model gives 50% home, 28% draw, 22% away. Under 2.25 goals (52%) and not both to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-0.
On recent form, Colchagua CD is 6-4-0 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Lota Schwager 2-3-5 over its own. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Colchagua CD and 2 for Lota Schwager, with 1 draw.
| Colchagua CD | Draw | Lota Schwager | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colchagua CD (rating 1569 vs 1463).
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Colchagua CD | Lota Schwager | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.8 | 2.5 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.6 | 5.7 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colchagua CD 2–1–2 Lota Schwager
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Chile Segunda | Lota Schwager | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Colchagua CD |
| 08/11/25 Chile Tercera | Lota Schwager | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Colchagua CD |
| 20/07/25 Chile Tercera | Colchagua CD | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Lota Schwager |
| 26/06/22 Chile Tercera | Colchagua CD | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Lota Schwager |
| 18/03/17 Chile Segunda | Lota Schwager | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Colchagua CD |
Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Provincial Osorno | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 23 |
| 2 | Colchagua CD | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 22 |
| 3 | Deportes Linares | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | General Velásquez | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 13 |
| 5 | CD Rengo Unido | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 11 |
| 6 | Santiago Morning | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | 10 |
| 7 | Lota Schwager | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Colchagua CD | Lota Schwager |
|---|---|---|
| CD Rengo Unido | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Provincial Osorno | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| General Velásquez | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Santiago Morning | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Deportes Linares | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Colchagua CD (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colchagua CD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 31/05 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 10/05 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Lota Schwager Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 26/04 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 9 | D |
| 05/04 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
3-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Lota Schwager
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 14/06 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Colchagua CD Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 11 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colchagua CD vs Lota Schwager?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Colchagua CD win (50%). Probabilities: Colchagua CD 50%, draw 28%, Lota Schwager 22%.
How many goals are expected in Colchagua CD vs Lota Schwager?
The model expects 2.22 goals (Colchagua CD 1.4 · Lota Schwager 0.82), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Colchagua CD vs Lota Schwager?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.