Prediction: Provincial Ovalle vs AC Colina
Expected goals: 2.83 (Provincial Ovalle 1.25 · AC Colina 1.58). The model gives 29% home, 27% draw, 44% away. Under 2.75 goals (52%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Provincial Ovalle with 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses over 10 games; AC Colina has piled up 2-3-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Provincial Ovalle and 4 for AC Colina.
| Provincial Ovalle | Draw | AC Colina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market | 29% | 28% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AC Colina (rating 1406 vs 1478).
- H2H favours AC Colina: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Provincial Ovalle | AC Colina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.3 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.2 | 3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Provincial Ovalle 2–0–4 AC Colina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 Chile Segunda | AC Colina | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 21/10/23 Chile Tercera | AC Colina | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 26/08/23 Chile Tercera | Provincial Ovalle | 1-0 HT 0-0 | AC Colina |
| 17/06/23 Chile Tercera | Provincial Ovalle | 2-0 HT 0-0 | AC Colina |
| 29/04/23 Chile Tercera | AC Colina | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 26/11/22 Chile Tercera | Provincial Ovalle | 0-2 HT 0-0 | AC Colina |
Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago City | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 15 | 20 |
| 2 | Concon National | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Brujas de Salamanca | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 5 | Real Juventud San Joaquin | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| 6 | AC Colina | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 7 | Provincial Ovalle | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Provincial Ovalle | AC Colina |
|---|---|---|
| Santiago City | 2-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Real Juventud San Joaquin | 1-6 L | 1-0 W |
| CD Trasandino de Los Andes | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Concon National | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Brujas de Salamanca | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Provincial Ovalle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/06 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
2-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 04/04 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
AC Colina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 21/06 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 31/05 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-2 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 02/05 | Provincial Ovalle Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 10 | D |
| 11/04 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 2-2 | 12 | 7 | D |
| 04/04 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Provincial Ovalle vs AC Colina?
According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Colina win (44%). Probabilities: Provincial Ovalle 29%, draw 27%, AC Colina 44%.
How many goals are expected in Provincial Ovalle vs AC Colina?
The model expects 2.83 goals (Provincial Ovalle 1.25 · AC Colina 1.58), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Provincial Ovalle vs AC Colina?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.