Prediction: Provincial Osorno vs General Velásquez
Expected goals: 1.97 (Provincial Osorno 1.34 · General Velásquez 0.63). The model gives 54% home, 28% draw, 18% away. Under 2.25 goals (55%) and not both to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-0.
Recent form leaves Provincial Osorno with 4 wins, 6 draws and 0 losses over 10 games; General Velásquez has piled up 4-1-5 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Provincial Osorno won 2 and General Velásquez 2, with 2 draws.
| Provincial Osorno | Draw | General Velásquez | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 31% | 16% |
| Market | 55% | 26% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Provincial Osorno (rating 1545 vs 1497).
- Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Provincial Osorno | General Velásquez | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.8 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.4 | 6.3 / 1.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Provincial Osorno 2–2–2 General Velásquez
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Chile Segunda | General Velásquez | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Provincial Osorno |
| 26/07/25 Chile Segunda | Provincial Osorno | 1-1 HT 1-1 | General Velásquez |
| 09/03/25 Chile Segunda | General Velásquez | 3-3 HT 1-0 | Provincial Osorno |
| 27/07/24 Chile Segunda | Provincial Osorno | 2-3 HT 1-0 | General Velásquez |
| 17/03/24 Chile Segunda | General Velásquez | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Provincial Osorno |
| 10/09/23 Chile Segunda | General Velásquez | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Provincial Osorno |
Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colchagua CD | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Provincial Osorno | 10 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 20 |
| 3 | Deportes Linares | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 16 |
| 4 | General Velásquez | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 13 |
| 5 | Santiago Morning | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 6 | Lota Schwager | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 9 |
| 7 | CD Rengo Unido | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 14 | 8 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Provincial Osorno | General Velásquez |
|---|---|---|
| Colchagua CD | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Deportes Linares | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Santiago Morning | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| CD Rengo Unido | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Lota Schwager | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 0 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: General Velásquez (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Provincial Osorno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Colchagua CD Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 06/06 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 30/05 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 23/05 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 7 | D |
| 09/05 | Lota Schwager Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | General Velásquez Chile Segunda |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | Colchagua CD Chile Segunda |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 11/04 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 04/04 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 29/11 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
General Velásquez
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Lota Schwager Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Colchagua CD Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 03/05 | Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 25/04 | Lota Schwager Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 05/04 | Colchagua CD Chile Segunda |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Provincial Osorno vs General Velásquez?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Provincial Osorno win (54%). Probabilities: Provincial Osorno 54%, draw 28%, General Velásquez 18%.
How many goals are expected in Provincial Osorno vs General Velásquez?
The model expects 1.97 goals (Provincial Osorno 1.34 · General Velásquez 0.63), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Provincial Osorno vs General Velásquez?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.