Football · Argentina Nacional B · 03/10, 22:00
Prediction: Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato Parana
Team pages: Chacarita Juniors · Patronato Parana
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.05Total
Chacarita Juniors1.17
Patronato Parana0.88
1X2
Chacarita Juniors
Draw
Patronato Parana
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Chacarita Juniors
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Patronato Parana
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chacarita Juniors
1–1–4
Patronato Parana
(6 last)
- Patronato Parana2-0Chacarita Juniors
- Chacarita Juniors1-0Patronato Parana
- Patronato Parana2-0Chacarita Juniors
- Patronato Parana3-0Chacarita Juniors
- Patronato Parana6-2Chacarita Juniors
- Chacarita Juniors1-1Patronato Parana
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chacarita Juniors 1438 · Patronato Parana 1508
| Chacarita Juniors | Draw | Patronato Parana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Market | 41% | 33% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.05 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patronato Parana (rating 1438 vs 1508).
- H2H favours Patronato Parana: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chacarita Juniors | Patronato Parana | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.7 | 2.2 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.5 | 4.6 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chacarita Juniors 1–1–4 Patronato Parana
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chacarita Juniors |
| 28/09/24 Argentina Nacional B | Chacarita Juniors | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Patronato Parana |
| 12/05/24 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Chacarita Juniors |
| 19/02/18 Argentina Superliga | Patronato Parana | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chacarita Juniors |
| 11/10/15 Argentina Nacional B | Patronato Parana | 6-2 HT 2-1 | Chacarita Juniors |
| 30/05/15 Argentina Nacional B | Chacarita Juniors | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Patronato Parana |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 30 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 31 | 15 | 54 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Temperley | 30 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 36 | 24 | 53 |
| 3 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 53 |
| 4 | CA Atlanta | 30 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 28 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 25 | 47 |
| 6 | San Martin SJ | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 27 | 45 |
| 7 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 31 | 27 | 45 |
| 8 | CA Colegiales | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 31 | 31 | 43 |
| 9 | Atletico Rafaela | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 25 | 26 | 42 |
| 10 | Deportivo Maipu | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 37 | 31 | 41 |
| 11 | San Martin de Tucuman | 30 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 39 |
| 12 | Quilmes | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 27 | 38 |
| 13 | Agropecuario | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 34 | 36 |
| 14 | Almagro | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 26 | 36 | 35 |
| 15 | Nueva Chicago | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 29 | 33 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 30 | 5 | 16 | 9 | 24 | 31 | 31 |
| 17 | Chacarita Juniors | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 23 | 33 | 30 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 31 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 53 | 23 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chacarita Juniors | Patronato Parana |
|---|---|---|
| CA Colegiales | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Quilmes | 3-0 W | 3-3 D |
| CA Atlanta | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Patronato Parana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chacarita Juniors
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 11 | W |
| 13/09 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 19/08 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 16/08 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 08/08 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
Patronato Parana
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 3-0 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 22/09 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 06/09 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 30/08 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/08 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 15/08 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
3-1 | 3-3 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato Parana?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chacarita Juniors win (41%). Probabilities: Chacarita Juniors 41%, draw 33%, Patronato Parana 26%.
How many goals are expected in Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato Parana?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Chacarita Juniors 1.17 · Patronato Parana 0.88), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chacarita Juniors vs Patronato Parana?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.