Football · Argentina Nacional B · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: CA Guemes vs CA Colegiales

Team pages: CA Guemes · CA Colegiales

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.07Total

CA Guemes0.81

CA Colegiales1.26

1X2

23% 31% 46%

CA Guemes Draw CA Colegiales

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Guemes 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDDDLLLL

CA Colegiales 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWLWLW

Head-to-head

CA Guemes 1–2 CA Colegiales (3 last)

CA Colegiales4-1CA Guemes
CA Guemes1-0CA Colegiales
CA Colegiales1-0CA Guemes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Guemes 1418 · CA Colegiales 1523

	CA Guemes	Draw	CA Colegiales
Our model	23%	32%	46%
Market	23%	31%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.07 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA Colegiales (rating 1418 vs 1523).
H2H favours CA Colegiales: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Guemes	CA Colegiales
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 2.7	2.9 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.00

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.75

2 (-0.5)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:12 +19’	4.00	3.00	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Guemes 1–0–2 CA Colegiales

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	CA Colegiales	4-1 HT 1-0	CA Guemes
31/08/25 Argentina Nacional B	CA Guemes	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Colegiales
26/04/25 Argentina Nacional B	CA Colegiales	1-0 HT 1-0	CA Guemes

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tristan Suarez	31	15	12	4	32	15	57
2	Gimnasia Jujuy	31	15	9	7	47	38	54
3	Club Atletico Temperley	31	14	11	6	36	25	53
4	CA Atlanta	31	16	4	11	35	28	52
5	Gimnasia y Tiro	31	13	9	9	32	27	48
6	Ferrocarril Midland	31	13	8	10	34	26	47
7	San Martin SJ	31	12	9	10	33	30	45
8	Deportivo Maipu	31	12	8	11	38	31	44
9	CA Colegiales	31	12	7	12	31	31	43
10	Atletico Rafaela	31	11	9	11	25	27	42
11	San Martin de Tucuman	31	9	13	9	34	32	40
12	Quilmes	31	10	8	13	30	27	38
13	Nueva Chicago	31	9	9	13	23	29	36
14	Agropecuario	31	9	9	13	26	35	36
15	Almagro	31	9	8	14	26	37	35
16	Patronato Parana	31	6	16	9	27	31	34
17	Chacarita Juniors	31	8	6	17	23	33	30
18	CA Guemes	31	5	8	18	23	53	23

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Guemes	CA Colegiales
Ferrocarril Midland	0-2 L	3-0 W
Chacarita Juniors	0-0 D	2-1 W
Gimnasia Jujuy	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CA Colegiales (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Guemes

LLDDDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Quilmes Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	1	1	L
20/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
12/09	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
06/09	Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-3	7	1	L
30/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
24/08	Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
19/08	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
15/08	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
08/08	Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
26/07	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-2	3	2	L

CA Colegiales

WDLDWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B	2-1	2-1	1	9	W
20/09	San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	10	6	L
12/09	Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
06/09	Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B	1-1	1-3	13	5	L
03/09	Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B	2-0	3-0	2	5	W
29/08	Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	8	6	W
22/08	Almagro Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
15/08	CA San Miguel Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
09/08	Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
01/08	Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Guemes vs CA Colegiales?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Colegiales win (46%). Probabilities: CA Guemes 23%, draw 31%, CA Colegiales 46%.

How many goals are expected in CA Guemes vs CA Colegiales?

The model expects 2.07 goals (CA Guemes 0.81 · CA Colegiales 1.26), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Guemes vs CA Colegiales?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.