Football · Argentina Nacional B · 03/10, 22:00

Prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn

Team pages: Ferro Carril Oeste · Deportivo Madryn

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Ferro Carril Oeste1.26

Deportivo Madryn0.71

1X2

48% 31% 20%

Ferro Carril Oeste Draw Deportivo Madryn

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferro Carril Oeste 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWWDDDWW

Deportivo Madryn 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWLWD

Head-to-head

Ferro Carril Oeste 2–2–2 Deportivo Madryn (6 last)

Deportivo Madryn0-1Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste1-1Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn1-0Ferro Carril Oeste
Deportivo Madryn1-0Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste0-0Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn1-3Ferro Carril Oeste

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferro Carril Oeste 1547 · Deportivo Madryn 1538

	Ferro Carril Oeste	Draw	Deportivo Madryn
Our model	48%	32%	20%
Market	49%	31%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferro Carril Oeste	Deportivo Madryn
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	1.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.6	4.8 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 2.01 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.02
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
02:01 +12’	1.90	3.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +1’	2.01	3.02	4.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferro Carril Oeste 2–2–2 Deportivo Madryn

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Madryn	0-1 HT 0-0	Ferro Carril Oeste
20/07/25 Argentina Nacional B	Ferro Carril Oeste	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Madryn
16/03/25 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Madryn	1-0 HT 0-0	Ferro Carril Oeste
22/07/23 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Madryn	1-0 HT 0-0	Ferro Carril Oeste
17/03/23 Argentina Nacional B	Ferro Carril Oeste	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Madryn
18/09/22 Argentina Nacional B	Deportivo Madryn	1-3 HT 0-1	Ferro Carril Oeste

Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	30	17	7	6	35	25	58
2	Deportivo Moron	30	16	7	7	48	29	55
3	Godoy Cruz	30	15	7	8	38	26	52
4	Deportivo Madryn	31	13	11	7	44	28	50
5	Colon	31	13	10	8	38	25	49
6	Almirante Brown	31	12	10	9	23	18	46
7	CA Estudiantes Caseros	31	12	9	10	29	26	45
8	Club Ciudad de Bolivar	31	10	12	9	26	28	42
9	Los Andes	30	8	13	9	22	20	37
10	CA Chaco For Ever	31	9	9	13	28	31	36
11	Defensores de Belgrano	30	8	12	10	23	26	36
12	Racing de Cordoba	30	9	8	13	26	36	35
13	All Boys	31	6	15	10	17	26	33
14	Central Norte	31	6	14	11	19	28	32
15	Club Atletico Mitre	30	6	14	10	27	37	32
16	CA San Miguel	31	6	13	12	25	36	31
17	CA San Telmo	30	7	10	13	23	34	31
18	Acassuso	31	7	8	16	22	34	29

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferro Carril Oeste	Deportivo Madryn
Defensores de Belgrano	1-0 W	1-2 L
Club Ciudad de Bolivar	1-0 W	3-1 W
Almirante Brown	0-0 D	0-1 L
Club Atletico Mitre	0-0 D	4-0 W
CA Estudiantes Caseros	2-2 D	1-0 W
All Boys	1-0 W	2-0 W
Godoy Cruz	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Madryn (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferro Carril Oeste

LLWWWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
19/09	Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
13/09	Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/09	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
30/08	CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-2	6	6	D
25/08	All Boys Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	8	7	W
15/08	CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B	1-0	3-1	4	0	W
09/08	Los Andes Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
01/08	Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
26/07	Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B	0-2	0-4	5	7	L

Deportivo Madryn

WWDWWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Central Norte Argentina Nacional B	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
20/09	Racing de Cordoba Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
14/09	Defensores de Belgrano Argentina Nacional B	0-2	1-2	3	9	L
06/09	Club Ciudad de Bolivar Argentina Nacional B	1-1	3-1	5	10	W
30/08	Almirante Brown Argentina Nacional B	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
26/08	Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
22/08	Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
16/08	San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B	0-1	2-2	5	7	D
08/08	CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
02/08	All Boys Argentina Nacional B	0-0	2-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferro Carril Oeste win (48%). Probabilities: Ferro Carril Oeste 48%, draw 31%, Deportivo Madryn 20%.

How many goals are expected in Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Ferro Carril Oeste 1.26 · Deportivo Madryn 0.71), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferro Carril Oeste vs Deportivo Madryn?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.