Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women · 25/07, 06:00

Prediction: Charlestown Azzurri (W) vs Adamstown Rosebud (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Charlestown Azzurri (W)1.59

Adamstown Rosebud (W)1.92

1X2

31% 24% 45%

Charlestown Azzurri (W) Draw Adamstown Rosebud (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Charlestown Azzurri (W) 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Adamstown Rosebud (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Charlestown Azzurri (W) 3–3–0 Adamstown Rosebud (W) (6 last)

Charlestown Azzurri (W)2-2Adamstown Rosebud (W)
Adamstown Rosebud (W)2-2Charlestown Azzurri (W)
Adamstown Rosebud (W)1-2Charlestown Azzurri (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlestown Azzurri (W) 1473 · Adamstown Rosebud (W) 1453

	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	Draw	Adamstown Rosebud (W)
Our model	31%	24%	45%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charlestown Azzurri (W): 3-3-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	Adamstown Rosebud (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.6	1.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.9	1.1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.1 / 0	1.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88
X	4.00 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:07 +1’	2.75	4.00	2.00
04:04 +3’	2.88▲	3.80▼	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlestown Azzurri (W) 3–3–0 Adamstown Rosebud (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	Adamstown Rosebud (W)
13/03/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Adamstown Rosebud (W)	2-2 HT 0-1	Charlestown Azzurri (W)
12/08/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Adamstown Rosebud (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Charlestown Azzurri (W)
31/05/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Adamstown Rosebud (W)
21/03/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Adamstown Rosebud (W)	0-3 HT 0-1	Charlestown Azzurri (W)
29/06/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	5-1 HT 2-0	Adamstown Rosebud (W)

Standings · Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maitland FC (W)	14	12	1	1	64	9	37
2	New Lambton FC (W)	14	11	1	2	49	28	34
3	Lake Macquarie (W)	15	6	4	5	22	26	22
4	Broadmeadow Magic (W)	14	3	4	7	30	37	13
5	Adamstown Rosebud (W)	14	3	3	8	25	32	12
6	Newcastle Olympic FC (W)	13	3	1	9	18	44	10
7	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	14	2	4	8	11	43	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	Adamstown Rosebud (W)
Maitland FC (W)	0-6 L	0-4 L
New Lambton FC (W)	0-3 L	2-4 L
Broadmeadow Magic (W)	0-0 D	3-0 W
Lake Macquarie (W)	2-0 W	0-1 L
Newcastle Olympic FC (W)	0-3 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Adamstown Rosebud (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlestown Azzurri (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-3	0-6	0	0	L
20/06	New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
13/06	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
10/06	Lake Macquarie (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/05	Adamstown Rosebud (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
09/05	Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-2	0-4	0	2	L
24/04	Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-3	0-3	4	2	L
17/04	New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	2-1	2-2	2	1	D
10/04	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-3	0-6	5	1	L
22/03	Lake Macquarie (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-0	3-0	1	0	W

Adamstown Rosebud (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Lake Macquarie (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-1	0-1	0	1	L
19/06	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
14/06	Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-2	0-4	1	1	L
30/05	Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-2	4-2	4	2	W
16/05	Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
08/05	New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-3	2-4	3	3	L
26/04	Lake Macquarie (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-0	1-2	6	0	L
18/04	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	4-2	5-3	4	5	W
12/04	Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
29/03	Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-2	2-3	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlestown Azzurri (W) vs Adamstown Rosebud (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Adamstown Rosebud (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Charlestown Azzurri (W) 31%, draw 24%, Adamstown Rosebud (W) 45%.

How many goals are expected in Charlestown Azzurri (W) vs Adamstown Rosebud (W)?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Charlestown Azzurri (W) 1.59 · Adamstown Rosebud (W) 1.92), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlestown Azzurri (W) vs Adamstown Rosebud (W)?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.