Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women · 26/07, 08:00

Prediction: Lake Macquarie (W) vs Maitland FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

Lake Macquarie (W)0.8

Maitland FC (W)2.74

1X2

8% 14% 78%

Lake Macquarie (W) Draw Maitland FC (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

Lake Macquarie (W) 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDWWDLLWWD

Maitland FC (W) 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWLW

Head-to-head

Lake Macquarie (W) 0–1–3 Maitland FC (W) (4 last)

Maitland FC (W)1-1Lake Macquarie (W)
Lake Macquarie (W)0-4Maitland FC (W)
Lake Macquarie (W)0-1Maitland FC (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lake Macquarie (W) 1482 · Maitland FC (W) 1618

	Lake Macquarie (W)	Draw	Maitland FC (W)
Our model	8%	15%	77%
Market	8%	14%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maitland FC (W) (rating 1482 vs 1618).
H2H favours Maitland FC (W): 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lake Macquarie (W)	Maitland FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	4.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	80/0/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.7	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.6 / 0	0.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

111.00

X6.50

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.80

2 (-2.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:21 +1’	11.00	6.50	1.17
04:20 +2’	9.50▼	6.50	1.18▲
05:12 +6’	11.00▲	6.50	1.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lake Macquarie (W) 0–1–3 Maitland FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Maitland FC (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Lake Macquarie (W)
15/03/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Lake Macquarie (W)	0-4 HT 0-3	Maitland FC (W)
21/06/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Lake Macquarie (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	Maitland FC (W)
13/04/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	Maitland FC (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Lake Macquarie (W)

Standings · Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maitland FC (W)	14	12	1	1	64	9	37
2	New Lambton FC (W)	14	11	1	2	49	28	34
3	Lake Macquarie (W)	15	6	4	5	22	26	22
4	Broadmeadow Magic (W)	14	3	4	7	30	37	13
5	Adamstown Rosebud (W)	14	3	3	8	25	32	12
6	Newcastle Olympic FC (W)	13	3	1	9	18	44	10
7	Charlestown Azzurri (W)	14	2	4	8	11	43	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lake Macquarie (W)	Maitland FC (W)
Broadmeadow Magic (W)	0-0 D	6-2 W
Adamstown Rosebud (W)	1-0 W	4-0 W
Newcastle Olympic FC (W)	2-1 W	5-0 W
Charlestown Azzurri (W)	0-2 L	6-0 W
New Lambton FC (W)	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maitland FC (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lake Macquarie (W)

LDWWDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
28/06	Adamstown Rosebud (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-0	1-0	10	1	W
21/06	Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
10/06	Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
02/06	New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-3	1-3	8	0	L
17/05	Maitland FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
10/05	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-1	5-1	7	0	W
26/04	Adamstown Rosebud (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-0	2-1	6	0	W
19/04	Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
28/03	New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-3	0-4	4	2	L

Maitland FC (W)

WWWWDWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	3-0	6-0	0	0	W
27/06	New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-1	1-2	8	0	L
14/06	Adamstown Rosebud (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	2-0	4-0	8	1	W
03/06	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	4-0	6-2	6	1	W
22/05	Newcastle Olympic FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	2-0	5-0	9	1	W
17/05	Lake Macquarie (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	0-1	1-1	3	0	D
09/05	Charlestown Azzurri (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	2-0	4-0	7	2	W
26/04	New Lambton FC (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	2-0	8-0	1	0	W
12/04	Adamstown Rosebud (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	1-0	2-0	8	0	W
27/03	Broadmeadow Magic (W) Australia Northern NSW Premier League Women	4-1	4-2	1	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lake Macquarie (W) vs Maitland FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maitland FC (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Lake Macquarie (W) 8%, draw 14%, Maitland FC (W) 78%.

How many goals are expected in Lake Macquarie (W) vs Maitland FC (W)?

The model expects 3.54 goals (Lake Macquarie (W) 0.8 · Maitland FC (W) 2.74), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lake Macquarie (W) vs Maitland FC (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.