Football · Estonia Esiliiga B · 25/08, 17:00

Prediction: FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Tallinna Kalev II

Team pages: FA Tartu Kalev · JK Tallinna Kalev II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.64Total

FA Tartu Kalev3

JK Tallinna Kalev II1.65

1X2

65% 17% 19%

FA Tartu Kalev Draw JK Tallinna Kalev II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

FA Tartu Kalev 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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JK Tallinna Kalev II 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FA Tartu Kalev 1–1–4 JK Tallinna Kalev II (6 last)

JK Tallinna Kalev II7-2FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev1-3JK Tallinna Kalev II
FA Tartu Kalev4-2JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Tallinna Kalev II0-0FA Tartu Kalev
FA Tartu Kalev2-3JK Tallinna Kalev II
FA Tartu Kalev0-3JK Tallinna Kalev II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FA Tartu Kalev 1432 · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1461

	FA Tartu Kalev	Draw	JK Tallinna Kalev II
Our model	65%	17%	18%
Market	65%	16%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 4.64 goals · Bet365 line 4.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours JK Tallinna Kalev II: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FA Tartu Kalev	JK Tallinna Kalev II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 2.8	2.2 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.38

X5.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.85

2 (+1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.751.98

Under 4.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 4.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	5.25 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
2	5.00 → 4.75▼	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +6’	1.38	5.25	5.00
15:56 +10’	1.38	5.50▲	4.75▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FA Tartu Kalev 1–1–4 JK Tallinna Kalev II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/06/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	7-2 HT 2-1	FA Tartu Kalev
24/04/26 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	1-3 HT 1-0	JK Tallinna Kalev II
20/01/24 Europe Friendlies	FA Tartu Kalev	4-2 HT 3-0	JK Tallinna Kalev II
23/09/23 Estonia Esiliiga B	JK Tallinna Kalev II	0-0 HT 0-0	FA Tartu Kalev
03/07/23 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	2-3 HT 0-2	JK Tallinna Kalev II
06/05/23 Estonia Esiliiga B	FA Tartu Kalev	0-3 HT 0-1	JK Tallinna Kalev II

Standings · Estonia Esiliiga B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	JK Tammeka Tartu II	16	11	1	4	48	31	34
2	JK Viljandi Tulevik	15	11	0	4	50	30	33
3	Johvi FC Phoenix	16	9	1	6	42	41	28
4	JK Trans Narva II	15	8	2	5	38	23	26
5	Parnu JK Vaprus II	15	8	1	6	40	33	25
6	FA Tartu Kalev	16	7	1	8	36	34	22
7	Tabasalu FC Charma	16	7	0	9	26	41	21
8	FC Levadia Tallinn U19	15	6	2	7	36	29	20
9	JK Tallinna Kalev II	15	3	1	11	30	35	10
10	Tallinna JK Legion	15	2	1	12	11	60	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FA Tartu Kalev	JK Tallinna Kalev II
JK Viljandi Tulevik	3-4 L	3-4 L
FC Levadia Tallinn U19	2-0 W	0-5 L
Tallinna JK Legion	6-0 W	3-3 D
JK Tammeka Tartu II	2-2 D	0-1 L
Parnu JK Vaprus II	1-2 L	2-3 L
Johvi FC Phoenix	3-4 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FA Tartu Kalev (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FA Tartu Kalev

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/06	JK Trans Narva II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
13/06	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	5	5	L
01/06	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	2-7	3	6	L
29/05	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/05	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	3-0	6-0	9	1	W
16/05	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	2-2	9	6	D
10/05	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
01/05	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	3-4	8	7	L
28/04	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	1-2	1-3	1	4	L
24/04	JK Tallinna Kalev II Estonia Esiliiga B	1-0	1-3	6	6	L

JK Tallinna Kalev II

LWLLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Tallinna JK Legion Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	3-3	8	3	D
13/06	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
01/06	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	2-1	7-2	2	6	W
28/05	JK Tammeka Tartu II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
16/05	Johvi FC Phoenix Estonia Esiliiga B	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
10/05	JK Viljandi Tulevik Estonia Esiliiga B	1-3	3-4	3	5	L
02/05	Tabasalu FC Charma Estonia Esiliiga B	1-3	2-3	9	6	L
28/04	Parnu JK Vaprus II Estonia Esiliiga B	0-0	2-3	5	2	L
24/04	FA Tartu Kalev Estonia Esiliiga B	0-1	3-1	7	6	W
18/04	FC Levadia Tallinn U19 Estonia Esiliiga B	0-3	0-5	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FA Tartu Kalev win (65%). Probabilities: FA Tartu Kalev 65%, draw 17%, JK Tallinna Kalev II 19%.

How many goals are expected in FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

The model expects 4.64 goals (FA Tartu Kalev 3 · JK Tallinna Kalev II 1.65), with a 54% chance of under 4.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FA Tartu Kalev vs JK Tallinna Kalev II?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.