Prediction: Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC
Expected goals: 2.84 (Atletico Ottawa 1.17 · Cavalry FC 1.67). The model gives 25% home, 27% draw, 48% away. Under 2.75 goals (53%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Atletico Ottawa with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Cavalry FC has piled up 7-2-1 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for Atletico Ottawa and 1 for Cavalry FC, with 2 draws.
| Atletico Ottawa | Draw | Cavalry FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 26% | 48% |
| Market | 25% | 27% | 48% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Atletico Ottawa: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Ottawa | Cavalry FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 2 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.1 | 2.4 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Ottawa 3–2–1 Cavalry FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Canada Premier League | Cavalry FC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 09/11/25 Canada Premier League | Atletico Ottawa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Cavalry FC |
| 27/09/25 Canada Premier League | Atletico Ottawa | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Cavalry FC |
| 24/08/25 Canada Premier League | Atletico Ottawa | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Cavalry FC |
| 29/06/25 Canada Premier League | Cavalry FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Atletico Ottawa |
| 26/04/25 Canada Premier League | Cavalry FC | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Atletico Ottawa |
Standings · Canada Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forge FC | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 28 |
| 2 | Cavalry FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 5 | 23 |
| 3 | Atletico Ottawa | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 19 | 17 |
| 4 | HFX Wanderers | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 19 | 12 |
| 5 | Inter Toronto | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 17 | 12 |
| 6 | Supra du Quebec | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 11 |
| 7 | Vancouver FC | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 8 | Pacific FC (CA) | 11 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Ottawa | Cavalry FC |
|---|---|---|
| HFX Wanderers | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Supra du Quebec | 5-3 W | 1-0 W |
| Vancouver FC | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Pacific FC (CA) | 2-2 D | 3-0 W |
| Forge FC | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Inter Toronto | 1-4 L | 5-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Cavalry FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Ottawa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 10/06 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
1-3 | 5-3 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 24/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Toronto FC Canada Championships |
0-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Cavalry FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 07/06 | HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/05 | Vancouver FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Pacific FC (CA) Canada Championships |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 25/04 | Inter Toronto Canada Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | Forge FC Canada Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 12/04 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cavalry FC win (48%). Probabilities: Atletico Ottawa 25%, draw 27%, Cavalry FC 48%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Atletico Ottawa 1.17 · Cavalry FC 1.67), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Ottawa vs Cavalry FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.