Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: FC Rosengård 1917 vs Ariana FC Malmo

Team pages: FC Rosengård 1917 · Ariana FC Malmo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

FC Rosengård 19171.82

Ariana FC Malmo1.72

1X2

40% 24% 36%

FC Rosengård 1917 Draw Ariana FC Malmo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Rosengård 1917 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLDDLL

Ariana FC Malmo 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLLW

Head-to-head

FC Rosengård 1917 2–3–1 Ariana FC Malmo (6 last)

Ariana FC Malmo1-1FC Rosengård 1917
FC Rosengård 19171-3Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo1-2FC Rosengård 1917
Ariana FC Malmo1-3FC Rosengård 1917
FC Rosengård 19170-0Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo2-2FC Rosengård 1917

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Rosengård 1917 1458 · Ariana FC Malmo 1524

	FC Rosengård 1917	Draw	Ariana FC Malmo
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	24%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ariana FC Malmo (rating 1458 vs 1524).
H2H favours FC Rosengård 1917: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Rosengård 1917	Ariana FC Malmo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	2.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.2	2.9 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.75

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:10 +4’	2.25	3.75	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Rosengård 1917 2–3–1 Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Rosengård 1917
18/10/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Rosengård 1917	1-3 HT 0-2	Ariana FC Malmo
27/06/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Rosengård 1917
28/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Ariana FC Malmo	1-3 HT 1-2	FC Rosengård 1917
13/09/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	FC Rosengård 1917	0-0 HT 0-0	Ariana FC Malmo
08/05/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	2-2 HT 1-2	FC Rosengård 1917

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	29	20	6	3	66	32	66
2	Hässleholms IF	29	16	5	8	51	33	53
3	Lunds BK	29	14	8	7	57	37	50
4	Ariana FC Malmo	29	13	8	8	58	45	47
5	Atvidabergs FF	29	13	8	8	53	43	47
6	FC Rosengård 1917	29	10	10	9	46	44	40
7	Jonkopings Sodra	29	11	6	12	35	31	39
8	FC Trollhättan	29	10	8	11	51	54	38
9	Tvååkers IF	29	10	8	11	39	43	38
10	Skövde AIK	29	9	11	9	39	47	38
11	BK Olympic	29	11	4	14	54	57	37
12	Kristianstad FC	29	10	6	13	37	41	36
13	Eskilsminne IF	29	9	6	14	45	60	33
14	Laholms FK	29	9	5	15	40	47	32
15	Angelholm	29	7	9	13	37	50	30
16	Utsiktens BK	29	3	6	20	27	71	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Rosengård 1917	Ariana FC Malmo
Skövde AIK	2-3 L	4-2 W
Kristianstad FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Tvååkers IF	1-1 D	0-0 D
Atvidabergs FF	1-1 D	2-2 D
Angelholm	0-3 L	2-3 L
Hässleholms IF	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ariana FC Malmo (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Rosengård 1917

WLLDWLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	2-3	0	2	L
24/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	6	5	L
17/10	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
10/10	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
03/10	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-3	7	0	L
26/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
20/09	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	10	2	D
17/09	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-3	3-4	4	4	L
11/09	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
04/09	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	4-2	7	5	W

Ariana FC Malmo

DDLWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	6-3	5	1	W
24/10	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	2-3	12	3	L
17/10	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
10/10	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	4-2	6	1	W
02/10	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
27/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
19/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	3-1	13	4	W
16/09	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
12/09	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
05/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Rosengård 1917 vs Ariana FC Malmo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Rosengård 1917 win (40%). Probabilities: FC Rosengård 1917 40%, draw 24%, Ariana FC Malmo 36%.

How many goals are expected in FC Rosengård 1917 vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model expects 3.53 goals (FC Rosengård 1917 1.82 · Ariana FC Malmo 1.72), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Rosengård 1917 vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.