Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 07/11, 15:00

Prediction: Tvååkers IF vs Lunds BK

Team pages: Tvååkers IF · Lunds BK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Tvååkers IF1.07

Lunds BK1.74

1X2

23% 24% 53%

Tvååkers IF Draw Lunds BK

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tvååkers IF 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLDDWL

Lunds BK 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Tvååkers IF 1–5 Lunds BK (6 last)

Lunds BK1-0Tvååkers IF
Tvååkers IF0-1Lunds BK
Lunds BK1-0Tvååkers IF
Tvååkers IF2-1Lunds BK
Lunds BK1-0Tvååkers IF
Lunds BK1-0Tvååkers IF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tvååkers IF 1461 · Lunds BK 1517

	Tvååkers IF	Draw	Lunds BK
Our model	22%	26%	52%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lunds BK (rating 1461 vs 1517).
H2H favours Lunds BK: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tvååkers IF	Lunds BK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	3.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.4	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.75

X4.00

21.67

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.90

2 (-0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +5’	3.75	4.00	1.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tvååkers IF 1–0–5 Lunds BK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-0 HT 1-0	Tvååkers IF
05/10/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Tvååkers IF	0-1 HT 0-0	Lunds BK
19/05/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-0 HT 0-0	Tvååkers IF
21/10/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Tvååkers IF	2-1 HT 0-1	Lunds BK
01/04/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-0 HT 0-0	Tvååkers IF
13/08/22 Sweden 1.div Södra	Lunds BK	1-0 HT 0-0	Tvååkers IF

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	29	20	6	3	66	32	66
2	Hässleholms IF	29	16	5	8	51	33	53
3	Lunds BK	29	14	8	7	57	37	50
4	Ariana FC Malmo	29	13	8	8	58	45	47
5	Atvidabergs FF	29	13	8	8	53	43	47
6	FC Rosengård 1917	29	10	10	9	46	44	40
7	Jonkopings Sodra	29	11	6	12	35	31	39
8	FC Trollhättan	29	10	8	11	51	54	38
9	Tvååkers IF	29	10	8	11	39	43	38
10	Skövde AIK	29	9	11	9	39	47	38
11	BK Olympic	29	11	4	14	54	57	37
12	Kristianstad FC	29	10	6	13	37	41	36
13	Eskilsminne IF	29	9	6	14	45	60	33
14	Laholms FK	29	9	5	15	40	47	32
15	Angelholm	29	7	9	13	37	50	30
16	Utsiktens BK	29	3	6	20	27	71	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tvååkers IF	Lunds BK
Angelholm	0-1 L	2-0 W
Utsiktens BK	4-1 W	1-1 D
FC Rosengård 1917	1-1 D	2-0 W
Laholms FK	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Trollhättan	2-4 L	4-3 W
Trelleborgs FF	0-1 L	2-4 L
Eskilsminne IF	2-4 L	4-1 W
Jonkopings Sodra	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lunds BK (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tvååkers IF

WDLLLLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
23/10	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-1	5	4	W
17/10	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/10	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/10	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-2	10	4	L
26/09	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-4	2	1	L
20/09	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
17/09	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-4	2-4	3	6	L
12/09	Ariana FC Malmo Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
06/09	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Lunds BK

DWWLLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
24/10	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	4-1	7	1	W
16/10	Trelleborgs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	2-4	0	6	L
10/10	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-3	5	3	W
02/10	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	8	2	L
25/09	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
19/09	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
16/09	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
11/09	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
05/09	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tvååkers IF vs Lunds BK?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lunds BK win (53%). Probabilities: Tvååkers IF 23%, draw 24%, Lunds BK 53%.

How many goals are expected in Tvååkers IF vs Lunds BK?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Tvååkers IF 1.07 · Lunds BK 1.74), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tvååkers IF vs Lunds BK?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.