Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 01/08, 13:00

Prediction: Angelholm vs Ariana FC Malmo

Team pages: Angelholm · Ariana FC Malmo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Angelholm1.54

Ariana FC Malmo1.84

1X2

31% 25% 44%

Angelholm Draw Ariana FC Malmo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Angelholm 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWDWLWD

Ariana FC Malmo 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Angelholm 4–1–1 Ariana FC Malmo (6 last)

Ariana FC Malmo1-3Angelholm
Angelholm2-1Ariana FC Malmo
Angelholm0-0Ariana FC Malmo
Angelholm3-2Ariana FC Malmo
Ariana FC Malmo3-1Angelholm
Angelholm4-0Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Angelholm 1521 · Ariana FC Malmo 1536

	Angelholm	Draw	Ariana FC Malmo
Our model	32%	24%	44%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Angelholm: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Angelholm	Ariana FC Malmo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	2.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +2’	2.88	3.60	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Angelholm 4–1–1 Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/10/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	1-3 HT 0-2	Angelholm
18/04/25 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	2-1 HT 1-1	Ariana FC Malmo
08/03/25 Club Friendly List	Angelholm	0-0 HT 0-0	Ariana FC Malmo
03/11/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	3-2 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo
19/04/24 Sweden 1.div Södra	Ariana FC Malmo	3-1 HT 2-1	Angelholm
15/10/23 Sweden 1.div Södra	Angelholm	4-0 HT 3-0	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	14	9	5	0	33	12	32
2	Ariana FC Malmo	14	8	3	3	28	16	27
3	Atvidabergs FF	14	7	5	2	30	18	26
4	Lunds BK	14	7	5	2	26	16	26
5	FC Rosengård 1917	14	6	4	4	23	19	22
6	Hässleholms IF	14	6	3	5	27	22	21
7	Tvååkers IF	14	6	3	5	17	19	21
8	Eskilsminne IF	15	6	2	7	25	28	20
9	BK Olympic	14	6	1	7	22	24	19
10	Jonkopings Sodra	14	5	3	6	20	15	18
11	Angelholm	14	3	7	4	22	22	16
12	Skövde AIK	14	3	7	4	11	20	16
13	Kristianstad FC	15	3	5	7	16	24	14
14	Laholms FK	14	4	1	9	21	29	13
15	FC Trollhättan	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
16	Utsiktens BK	14	1	1	12	10	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Angelholm	Ariana FC Malmo
FC Trollhättan	1-1 D	2-0 W
Tvååkers IF	2-3 L	0-1 L
BK Olympic	1-1 D	1-2 L
Jonkopings Sodra	0-3 L	1-0 W
Skövde AIK	1-1 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ariana FC Malmo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Angelholm

DDLLWDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
23/06	BK Astrio Sweden Cup	0-0	3-0	5	2	W
18/06	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	2-3	7	0	L
13/06	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-1	4-2	8	2	W
08/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
02/06	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
24/05	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
18/05	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
14/05	Atvidabergs FF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	9	2	D
09/05	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-1	1-1	4	1	D

Ariana FC Malmo

WWLWLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
12/06	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-1	5	1	W
07/06	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
30/05	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-2	4-2	9	4	W
26/05	BK Olympic Sweden Cup Qualification	2-2	3-5	7	3	L
23/05	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
18/05	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	8	0	L
14/05	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
08/05	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	3-2	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Angelholm vs Ariana FC Malmo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ariana FC Malmo win (44%). Probabilities: Angelholm 31%, draw 25%, Ariana FC Malmo 44%.

How many goals are expected in Angelholm vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Angelholm 1.54 · Ariana FC Malmo 1.84), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Angelholm vs Ariana FC Malmo?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.