Football · Sweden 1.div Södra · 08/08, 13:00

Prediction: Ariana FC Malmo vs Trelleborgs FF

Team pages: Ariana FC Malmo · Trelleborgs FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Ariana FC Malmo1.47

Trelleborgs FF1.57

1X2

35% 26% 40%

Ariana FC Malmo Draw Trelleborgs FF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ariana FC Malmo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWLWD

Trelleborgs FF 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWWLWWDD

Head-to-head

Ariana FC Malmo 0–1–1 Trelleborgs FF (2 last)

Trelleborgs FF1-1Ariana FC Malmo
Trelleborgs FF3-1Ariana FC Malmo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ariana FC Malmo 1545 · Trelleborgs FF 1548

	Ariana FC Malmo	Draw	Trelleborgs FF
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	35%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ariana FC Malmo	Trelleborgs FF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.5	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:46 +1’	2.55	3.60	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ariana FC Malmo 0–1–1 Trelleborgs FF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Sweden 1.div Södra	Trelleborgs FF	1-1 HT 1-0	Ariana FC Malmo
11/02/23 Club Friendly List	Trelleborgs FF	3-1 HT 3-1	Ariana FC Malmo

Standings · Sweden 1.div Södra · Ettan 2026, Sodra

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Trelleborgs FF	15	9	6	0	35	14	33
2	Ariana FC Malmo	15	8	4	3	30	18	28
3	Lunds BK	15	7	6	2	28	18	27
4	Atvidabergs FF	15	7	5	3	30	20	26
5	FC Rosengård 1917	15	7	4	4	27	21	25
6	Hässleholms IF	15	7	3	5	29	22	24
7	BK Olympic	15	7	1	7	25	25	22
8	Tvååkers IF	15	6	4	5	19	21	22
9	Eskilsminne IF	15	6	2	7	25	28	20
10	Jonkopings Sodra	15	5	3	7	22	19	18
11	Angelholm	15	3	8	4	24	24	17
12	FC Trollhättan	15	3	7	5	19	26	16
13	Skövde AIK	15	3	7	5	12	23	16
14	Kristianstad FC	15	3	5	7	16	24	14
15	Laholms FK	15	4	1	10	21	30	13
16	Utsiktens BK	15	1	2	12	12	41	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ariana FC Malmo	Trelleborgs FF
Jonkopings Sodra	1-0 W	1-1 D
Lunds BK	4-1 W	2-2 D
Eskilsminne IF	2-1 W	3-2 W
Skövde AIK	4-0 W	4-0 W
FC Trollhättan	2-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Ariana FC Malmo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ariana FC Malmo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Angelholm Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
27/06	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
21/06	BK Olympic Sweden 1.div Södra	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
12/06	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	3-0	4-1	5	1	W
07/06	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
30/05	Laholms FK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-2	4-2	9	4	W
26/05	BK Olympic Sweden Cup Qualification	2-2	3-5	7	3	L
23/05	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
18/05	Tvååkers IF Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-1	8	0	L
14/05	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	5	2	W

Trelleborgs FF

DDDWWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Lunds BK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
26/06	Kristianstad FC Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
18/06	FC Rosengård 1917 Sweden 1.div Södra	2-2	3-2	3	4	W
14/06	Hässleholms IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-0	15	6	W
10/06	Osters IF Club Friendly List	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
07/06	Skövde AIK Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	4-0	7	1	W
30/05	Eskilsminne IF Sweden 1.div Södra	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
23/05	Utsiktens BK Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
17/05	FC Trollhättan Sweden 1.div Södra	1-0	2-2	9	4	D
14/05	Jonkopings Sodra Sweden 1.div Södra	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ariana FC Malmo vs Trelleborgs FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Trelleborgs FF win (40%). Probabilities: Ariana FC Malmo 35%, draw 26%, Trelleborgs FF 40%.

How many goals are expected in Ariana FC Malmo vs Trelleborgs FF?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Ariana FC Malmo 1.47 · Trelleborgs FF 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ariana FC Malmo vs Trelleborgs FF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.