Football · Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland · 02/10, 19:00

Prediction: Lilla Torg FF vs Nosaby

Team pages: Lilla Torg FF · Nosaby

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Lilla Torg FF1.97

Nosaby1.78

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Lilla Torg FF Draw Nosaby

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lilla Torg FF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWWDDD

Nosaby 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Lilla Torg FF 0–1–0 Nosaby (1 last)

Nosaby3-3Lilla Torg FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lilla Torg FF 1504 · Nosaby 1508

	Lilla Torg FF	Draw	Nosaby
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lilla Torg FF	Nosaby
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.70

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.15▼	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.50 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.70 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:04 +7’	2.30	3.60	2.50
17:38 +4’	2.15▼	3.70▲	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +4’	2.13	3.57	2.67
17:03 +39’	2.15▲	3.63▲	2.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lilla Torg FF 0–1–0 Nosaby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	Nosaby	3-3 HT 0-1	Lilla Torg FF

Standings · Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland · Sodra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Karlskrona	23	18	3	2	61	20	57
2	IFK Trelleborg	23	14	5	4	49	23	47
3	Oskarshamns AIK	23	13	3	7	58	30	42
4	Linero IF	23	12	2	9	44	39	38
5	IFK Berga	23	11	4	8	49	36	37
6	Nosaby	23	10	6	7	42	37	36
7	Växjö Norra	23	9	8	6	31	31	35
8	Osterlen FF	23	8	6	9	37	38	30
9	Sölvesborgs GoIF	23	9	1	13	35	42	28
10	Lilla Torg FF	23	6	10	7	31	38	28
11	Staffanstorp United	23	5	8	10	33	41	23
12	Torns IF	23	7	0	16	31	64	21
13	Räppe GOIF	23	4	6	13	25	51	18
14	IFK Karlshamn	23	3	2	18	24	60	11

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lilla Torg FF	Nosaby
Linero IF	2-2 D	4-0 W
Växjö Norra	1-1 D	0-0 D
IFK Berga	3-1 W	1-3 L
IFK Trelleborg	0-2 L	0-3 L
FK Karlskrona	1-4 L	1-5 L
Staffanstorp United	1-1 D	3-0 W
Oskarshamns AIK	2-3 L	2-1 W
Torns IF	4-0 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nosaby (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lilla Torg FF

WLDLLWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Osterlen FF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-1	3-3	–	–	D
18/09	Linero IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-2	2-2	1	6	D
12/09	Växjö Norra Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	IFK Berga Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
29/08	Räppe GOIF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-1	3-1	9	3	W
23/08	IFK Trelleborg Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
15/08	FK Karlskrona Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-4	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Staffanstorp United Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Oskarshamns AIK Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-2	2-3	4	7	L
24/06	Torns IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-0	4-0	7	0	W

Nosaby

LWWLWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Staffanstorp United Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
20/09	Växjö Norra Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/09	IFK Berga Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	Oskarshamns AIK Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
29/08	IFK Karlshamn Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Torns IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	IFK Trelleborg Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
14/08	Sölvesborgs GoIF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
08/08	Linero IF Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	3-0	4-0	4	5	W
30/07	FK Karlskrona Sweden 2.div Södra Götaland	1-0	1-5	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lilla Torg FF vs Nosaby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lilla Torg FF win (42%). Probabilities: Lilla Torg FF 42%, draw 24%, Nosaby 34%.

How many goals are expected in Lilla Torg FF vs Nosaby?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Lilla Torg FF 1.97 · Nosaby 1.78), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lilla Torg FF vs Nosaby?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.