Football · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · 31/07, 19:15

Prediction: Vanersborgs FK vs Herrestads AIF

Team pages: Vanersborgs FK · Herrestads AIF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Vanersborgs FK1.51

Herrestads AIF1.66

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Vanersborgs FK Draw Herrestads AIF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vanersborgs FK 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDWDLLLLWL

Herrestads AIF 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWDLL

Head-to-head

Vanersborgs FK 2–1–3 Herrestads AIF (6 last)

Herrestads AIF1-1Vanersborgs FK
Vanersborgs FK1-0Herrestads AIF
Herrestads AIF3-0Vanersborgs FK
Herrestads AIF2-0Vanersborgs FK
Vanersborgs FK2-1Herrestads AIF
Herrestads AIF3-1Vanersborgs FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vanersborgs FK 1452 · Herrestads AIF 1499

	Vanersborgs FK	Draw	Herrestads AIF
Our model	34%	26%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Herrestads AIF (rating 1452 vs 1499).
H2H favours Herrestads AIF: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vanersborgs FK	Herrestads AIF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.1	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.60

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +1’	2.63	3.60	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vanersborgs FK 2–1–3 Herrestads AIF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	1-1 HT 1-0	Vanersborgs FK
29/08/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vanersborgs FK	1-0 HT 0-0	Herrestads AIF
16/05/25 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	3-0 HT 1-0	Vanersborgs FK
04/10/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	2-0 HT 1-0	Vanersborgs FK
19/06/24 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Vanersborgs FK	2-1 HT 1-1	Herrestads AIF
12/08/23 Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	Herrestads AIF	3-1 HT 3-0	Vanersborgs FK

Standings · Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland · Norra Gotaland

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Husqvarna FF	15	12	3	0	36	10	39
2	Skara	14	10	3	1	29	17	33
3	IFK Skövde FK	14	9	1	4	30	19	28
4	Grebbestads IF	14	8	1	5	27	20	25
5	Ahlafors IF	14	6	5	3	31	19	23
6	Stenungsunds IF	14	5	3	6	25	22	18
7	Motala AIF FK	14	5	3	6	18	17	18
8	IFK Kumla	14	4	5	5	15	16	17
9	Herrestads AIF	14	4	5	5	23	27	17
10	Vanersborgs FK	14	4	4	6	19	24	16
11	Lidköpings FK	15	3	3	9	16	33	12
12	IF Karlstad II	14	2	4	8	16	26	10
13	IK Tord	14	0	8	6	15	26	8
14	Vänersborgs IF	14	2	2	10	16	40	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vanersborgs FK	Herrestads AIF
Motala AIF FK	1-0 W	1-0 W
Stenungsunds IF	2-4 L	4-1 W
Skara	1-3 L	0-2 L
IK Tord	2-2 D	2-2 D
Vänersborgs IF	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Herrestads AIF (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vanersborgs FK

LDWDLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	IK Kongahälla Club Friendly List	1-1	1-2	7	2	L
27/06	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/06	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-2	2-4	4	5	L
14/06	Husqvarna FF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-3	4	0	L
05/06	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-3	3	1	L
29/05	Grebbestads IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-0	2-3	4	2	L
22/05	Herrestads AIF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/05	IF Karlstad II Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	3-0	3-2	–	–	W
10/05	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	2-2	5	2	D
01/05	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	1-2	2	2	L

Herrestads AIF

WDWLDWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Skara Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-1	0-2	3	3	L
18/06	IFK Skövde FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	1-2	3	0	L
15/06	Vänersborgs IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
07/06	Motala AIF FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
30/05	IFK Kumla Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
22/05	Vanersborgs FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
13/05	Ahlafors IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	0-2	0-5	5	2	L
08/05	Stenungsunds IF Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	4-0	4-1	2	4	W
01/05	IK Tord Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
26/04	Lidköpings FK Sweden 2.div Norra Götaland	2-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vanersborgs FK vs Herrestads AIF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Herrestads AIF win (41%). Probabilities: Vanersborgs FK 34%, draw 25%, Herrestads AIF 41%.

How many goals are expected in Vanersborgs FK vs Herrestads AIF?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Vanersborgs FK 1.51 · Herrestads AIF 1.66), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Vanersborgs FK vs Herrestads AIF?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.