Football · Australia Victoria Premier League 2 · 21/08, 12:30
Prediction: Essendon Royals vs Keilor Park
Team pages: Essendon Royals · Keilor Park
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.79Total
Essendon Royals2.15
Keilor Park1.64
1X2
Essendon Royals
Draw
Keilor Park
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Essendon Royals
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Keilor Park
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Essendon Royals
1–3–2
Keilor Park
(6 last)
- Keilor Park1-0Essendon Royals
- Essendon Royals2-2Keilor Park
- Essendon Royals2-1Keilor Park
- Keilor Park2-2Essendon Royals
- Essendon Royals1-1Keilor Park
- Essendon Royals0-1Keilor Park
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Essendon Royals 1582 · Keilor Park 1505
| Essendon Royals | Draw | Keilor Park | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| Market | 49% | 22% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (rating 1582 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Keilor Park: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Essendon Royals | Keilor Park | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 4.3 | 3.2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Essendon Royals 1–3–2 Keilor Park
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 | Keilor Park | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Essendon Royals |
| 20/05/22 Australia Victoria State League 1 | Essendon Royals | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Keilor Park |
| 25/06/21 Australia Victoria State League 1 | Essendon Royals | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Keilor Park |
| 04/05/19 Australia Victoria State League 1 | Keilor Park | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Essendon Royals |
| 30/06/18 Australia Victoria State League 1 | Essendon Royals | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Keilor Park |
| 02/09/17 Australia Victoria State League 1 | Essendon Royals | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Keilor Park |
Standings · Australia Victoria Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Malvern City | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 61 | 29 | 53 |
| 2 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC | 24 | 16 | 4 | 4 | 54 | 31 | 52 |
| 3 | Essendon Royals | 24 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 60 | 36 | 47 |
| 4 | Bayside Argonauts FC | 24 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 42 | 30 | 44 |
| 5 | Keilor Park | 24 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | 38 |
| 6 | Box Hill United | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 29 | 37 |
| 7 | Whittlesea United | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 40 | 28 | 34 |
| 8 | Springvale White Eagles | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 44 | 29 |
| 9 | Eastern Lions | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 38 | 26 |
| 10 | Kingston City | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 32 | 52 | 26 |
| 11 | Nunawading | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 21 | 39 | 25 |
| 12 | Werribee City | 24 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 35 | 43 | 24 |
| 13 | Altona City | 24 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 21 | 38 | 17 |
| 14 | Moreland City SC | 23 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 29 | 58 | 13 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Essendon Royals | Keilor Park |
|---|---|---|
| Eastern Lions | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Kingston City | 4-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Whittlesea United | 1-1 D | 3-3 D |
| Box Hill United | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Bayside Argonauts FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Werribee City | 3-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Malvern City | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Springvale White Eagles | 8-0 W | 2-5 L |
| Goulburn Valley Suns FC | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 1 L | 5 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Essendon Royals
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | Altona City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/07 | Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
4-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/07 | Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 10/07 | Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 8-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
Keilor Park
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Whittlesea United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Goulburn Valley Suns FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 31/07 | Box Hill United Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 24/07 | Bayside Argonauts FC Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Werribee City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Malvern City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 03/07 | Springvale White Eagles Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-3 | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 12/06 | Nunawading Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 29/05 | Kingston City Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 22/05 | Eastern Lions Australia Victoria Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Essendon Royals vs Keilor Park?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Essendon Royals win (49%). Probabilities: Essendon Royals 49%, draw 22%, Keilor Park 29%.
How many goals are expected in Essendon Royals vs Keilor Park?
The model expects 3.79 goals (Essendon Royals 2.15 · Keilor Park 1.64), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Essendon Royals vs Keilor Park?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.