Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 08/08, 13:00

Prediction: Nordstrand vs Frigg

Team pages: Nordstrand · Frigg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.88Total

Nordstrand1.82

Frigg2.06

1X2

34% 22% 44%

Nordstrand Draw Frigg

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nordstrand 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLLWLW

Frigg 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWDDD

Head-to-head

Nordstrand 3–1–2 Frigg (6 last)

Frigg1-2Nordstrand
Frigg1-2Nordstrand
Nordstrand0-0Frigg
Nordstrand2-4Frigg
Frigg2-4Nordstrand
Nordstrand0-1Frigg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nordstrand 1509 · Frigg 1540

	Nordstrand	Draw	Frigg
Our model	34%	22%	43%
Market	35%	21%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.88 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nordstrand: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nordstrand	Frigg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.7	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X4.20

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 42.00

Under 41.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.60▼	Bet365 2.60
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.00 → 2.05▲	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:59 +13’	2.63	4.20	2.00
23:22 +3’	2.60▼	4.20	2.05▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nordstrand 3–1–2 Frigg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Frigg	1-2 HT 0-2	Nordstrand
02/07/25 Norway Cup	Frigg	1-2 HT 1-1	Nordstrand
16/03/25 Club Friendly List	Nordstrand	0-0 HT 0-0	Frigg
27/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Nordstrand	2-4 HT 0-1	Frigg
06/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Frigg	2-4 HT 1-2	Nordstrand
18/05/22 Norway Cup	Nordstrand	0-1 HT 0-1	Frigg

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	14	12	1	1	45	14	37
2	Heming	14	9	2	3	32	19	29
3	Gamle Oslo	14	9	1	4	48	27	28
4	IF Ready	14	7	5	2	34	21	26
5	Baerum	14	8	1	5	44	27	25
6	Valerenga 2	14	8	1	5	32	39	25
7	Frigg	14	6	4	4	34	27	22
8	FK Union Carl Berner	14	7	0	7	23	20	21
9	Nordstrand	14	5	1	8	23	30	16
10	KFUM 2	14	4	2	8	26	38	14
11	Ullern	14	3	2	9	23	35	11
12	Grei	14	3	1	10	24	48	10
13	Lokomotiv Oslo	14	3	1	10	22	48	10
14	Konnerud	14	3	0	11	21	38	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nordstrand	Frigg
Gamle Oslo	1-2 L	3-1 W
Asker	0-2 L	1-2 L
KFUM 2	2-2 D	4-3 W
IF Ready	0-3 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Frigg (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nordstrand

WLWWDLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
25/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	5	3	L
27/06	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-1	5-1	4	3	W
20/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
06/06	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-3	3	5	L
30/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
23/05	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-1	8	1	W
16/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	13	1	W
09/05	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
02/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	2-1	3	4	W

Frigg

LWWLWWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
27/07	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-3	7	9	D
27/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
13/06	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	4-1	4	1	W
30/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/05	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
16/05	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
11/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	4-3	11	3	W
02/05	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nordstrand vs Frigg?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Frigg win (44%). Probabilities: Nordstrand 34%, draw 22%, Frigg 44%.

How many goals are expected in Nordstrand vs Frigg?

The model expects 3.88 goals (Nordstrand 1.82 · Frigg 2.06), with a 54% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Nordstrand vs Frigg?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.