Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 15/08, 13:00

Prediction: Ullern vs FK Union Carl Berner

Team pages: Ullern · FK Union Carl Berner

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Ullern1.64

FK Union Carl Berner1.81

1X2

35% 23% 42%

Ullern Draw FK Union Carl Berner

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ullern 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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FK Union Carl Berner 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ullern 0–1 FK Union Carl Berner (1 last)

FK Union Carl Berner1-0Ullern

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ullern 1440 · FK Union Carl Berner 1490

	Ullern	Draw	FK Union Carl Berner
Our model	34%	24%	41%
Market	36%	22%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Union Carl Berner (rating 1440 vs 1490).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ullern	FK Union Carl Berner
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.3	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X4.10

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +9’	2.50	4.10	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ullern 0–0–1 FK Union Carl Berner

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	FK Union Carl Berner	1-0 HT 1-0	Ullern

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	15	13	1	1	50	18	40
2	Gamle Oslo	15	10	1	4	53	29	31
3	Heming	15	9	3	3	33	20	30
4	Baerum	15	9	1	5	49	28	28
5	IF Ready	15	7	6	2	35	22	27
6	Frigg	15	7	4	4	37	29	25
7	Valerenga 2	15	8	1	6	36	44	25
8	FK Union Carl Berner	15	7	0	8	24	22	21
9	Nordstrand	15	5	1	9	25	33	16
10	KFUM 2	15	4	2	9	27	43	14
11	Lokomotiv Oslo	15	4	1	10	23	48	13
12	Konnerud	15	4	0	11	23	39	12
13	Ullern	15	3	2	10	25	40	11
14	Grei	15	3	1	11	24	49	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ullern	FK Union Carl Berner
Gamle Oslo	2-5 L	1-3 L
Heming	1-3 L	0-2 L
Asker	2-3 L	1-2 L
Konnerud	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ullern

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-5	3	5	L
01/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
25/07	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-3	8	4	L
27/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-3	9	3	L
13/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	2	4	W
06/06	Christiania BK Norway Cup	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
30/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	14	2	W
25/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
16/05	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	3	L

FK Union Carl Berner

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
31/07	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-3	0	4	L
27/07	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
26/06	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
20/06	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
13/06	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
07/06	IF Ready Norway Cup	2-1	2-2	3	8	D
30/05	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-2	4	6	L
25/05	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
14/05	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-0	8-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ullern vs FK Union Carl Berner?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Union Carl Berner win (42%). Probabilities: Ullern 35%, draw 23%, FK Union Carl Berner 42%.

How many goals are expected in Ullern vs FK Union Carl Berner?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Ullern 1.64 · FK Union Carl Berner 1.81), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ullern vs FK Union Carl Berner?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.