Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 15/08, 13:00

Prediction: Frigg vs Lokomotiv Oslo

Team pages: Frigg · Lokomotiv Oslo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.4Total

Frigg2.8

Lokomotiv Oslo1.6

1X2

62% 18% 20%

Frigg Draw Lokomotiv Oslo

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Frigg 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWDDDW

Lokomotiv Oslo 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLLWLW

Head-to-head

Frigg 2–2–2 Lokomotiv Oslo (6 last)

Lokomotiv Oslo1-3Frigg
Lokomotiv Oslo0-1Frigg
Frigg1-1Lokomotiv Oslo
Frigg0-0Lokomotiv Oslo
Lokomotiv Oslo5-0Frigg
Lokomotiv Oslo1-0Frigg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Frigg 1566 · Lokomotiv Oslo 1433

	Frigg	Draw	Lokomotiv Oslo
Our model	62%	18%	20%
Market	62%	18%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frigg (rating 1566 vs 1433).
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Frigg	Lokomotiv Oslo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.7	1.4 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.44

X5.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.45▲	Bet365 1.45
X	5.00 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	4.50 → 4.33▼	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:37 +9’	1.44	5.00	4.50
00:48 +13’	1.45▲	5.25▲	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Frigg 2–2–2 Lokomotiv Oslo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Lokomotiv Oslo	1-3 HT 0-0	Frigg
26/08/23 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Lokomotiv Oslo	0-1 HT 0-1	Frigg
05/06/23 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Frigg	1-1 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Oslo
11/07/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Frigg	0-0 HT 0-0	Lokomotiv Oslo
02/06/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Lokomotiv Oslo	5-0 HT 1-0	Frigg
23/09/17 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Lokomotiv Oslo	1-0 HT 0-0	Frigg

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	15	13	1	1	50	18	40
2	Gamle Oslo	15	10	1	4	53	29	31
3	Heming	15	9	3	3	33	20	30
4	Baerum	15	9	1	5	49	28	28
5	IF Ready	15	7	6	2	35	22	27
6	Frigg	15	7	4	4	37	29	25
7	Valerenga 2	15	8	1	6	36	44	25
8	FK Union Carl Berner	15	7	0	8	24	22	21
9	Nordstrand	15	5	1	9	25	33	16
10	KFUM 2	15	4	2	9	27	43	14
11	Lokomotiv Oslo	15	4	1	10	23	48	13
12	Konnerud	15	4	0	11	23	39	12
13	Ullern	15	3	2	10	25	40	11
14	Grei	15	3	1	11	24	49	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Frigg	Lokomotiv Oslo
Gamle Oslo	3-1 W	1-6 L
KFUM 2	4-3 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Frigg

WWLWWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	3-2	5	4	W
01/08	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-1	2-2	2	6	D
27/07	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	3-3	7	9	D
27/06	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	3-1	7	3	W
13/06	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	4-1	4	1	W
30/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	3-1	2	4	W
23/05	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
16/05	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
11/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	4-3	11	3	W

Lokomotiv Oslo

DLLLLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	2-3	3	6	L
27/07	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
24/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	1-6	4	3	L
20/06	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-3	5	3	L
13/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	0-6	0	2	L
31/05	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
25/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	3-4	5	3	L
14/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-5	0-8	2	2	L
09/05	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	4-4	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Frigg vs Lokomotiv Oslo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Frigg win (62%). Probabilities: Frigg 62%, draw 18%, Lokomotiv Oslo 20%.

How many goals are expected in Frigg vs Lokomotiv Oslo?

The model expects 4.4 goals (Frigg 2.8 · Lokomotiv Oslo 1.6), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Frigg vs Lokomotiv Oslo?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.