Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 08/08, 13:00

Prediction: Ullern vs Gamle Oslo

Team pages: Ullern · Gamle Oslo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

Ullern1.63

Gamle Oslo2.3

1X2

27% 21% 53%

Ullern Draw Gamle Oslo

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Ullern 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Gamle Oslo 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ullern 1–1–3 Gamle Oslo (5 last)

Gamle Oslo2-3Ullern
Gamle Oslo1-0Ullern
Ullern4-4Gamle Oslo
Gamle Oslo5-2Ullern
Ullern3-4Gamle Oslo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ullern 1440 · Gamle Oslo 1556

	Ullern	Draw	Gamle Oslo
Our model	26%	21%	52%
Market	27%	20%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gamle Oslo (rating 1440 vs 1556).
H2H favours Gamle Oslo: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ullern	Gamle Oslo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.1	3.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.9	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.30

X4.50

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.93

2 (-0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:59 +12’	3.30	4.50	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ullern 1–1–3 Gamle Oslo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Gamle Oslo	2-3 HT 1-0	Ullern
16/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Gamle Oslo	1-0 HT 1-0	Ullern
22/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Ullern	4-4 HT 3-2	Gamle Oslo
27/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Gamle Oslo	5-2 HT 3-2	Ullern
06/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Ullern	3-4 HT 0-1	Gamle Oslo

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	14	12	1	1	45	14	37
2	Heming	14	9	2	3	32	19	29
3	Gamle Oslo	14	9	1	4	48	27	28
4	IF Ready	14	7	5	2	34	21	26
5	Baerum	14	8	1	5	44	27	25
6	Valerenga 2	14	8	1	5	32	39	25
7	Frigg	14	6	4	4	34	27	22
8	FK Union Carl Berner	14	7	0	7	23	20	21
9	Nordstrand	14	5	1	8	23	30	16
10	KFUM 2	14	4	2	8	26	38	14
11	Ullern	14	3	2	9	23	35	11
12	Grei	14	3	1	10	24	48	10
13	Lokomotiv Oslo	14	3	1	10	22	48	10
14	Konnerud	14	3	0	11	21	38	9

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ullern	Gamle Oslo
Frigg	2-2 D	1-3 L
Heming	1-3 L	0-1 L
Asker	2-3 L	4-0 W
Konnerud	2-1 W	4-2 W
FK Union Carl Berner	0-1 L	3-1 W
Valerenga 2	1-3 L	8-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gamle Oslo (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ullern

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
25/07	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-3	8	4	L
27/06	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
20/06	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-3	2-3	9	3	L
13/06	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	2	4	W
06/06	Christiania BK Norway Cup	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
30/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	14	2	W
25/05	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
16/05	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
10/05	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	1-3	6	5	L

Gamle Oslo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
25/07	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
24/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	6-1	3	3	W
20/06	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	0-1	5	10	L
13/06	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-3	7	4	L
30/05	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-3	8	4	L
25/05	Asker Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	4-0	1	3	W
14/05	Grei Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
09/05	Konnerud Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	4-2	1	5	W
02/05	Valerenga 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	5-1	8-3	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ullern vs Gamle Oslo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gamle Oslo win (53%). Probabilities: Ullern 27%, draw 21%, Gamle Oslo 53%.

How many goals are expected in Ullern vs Gamle Oslo?

The model expects 3.93 goals (Ullern 1.63 · Gamle Oslo 2.3), with a 56% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ullern vs Gamle Oslo?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.