Football · Norway Division 3 Group 1 · 08/08, 14:00

Prediction: Asker vs Valerenga 2

Team pages: Asker · Valerenga 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.6Total

Asker3.23

Valerenga 21.37

1X2

73% 14% 13%

Asker Draw Valerenga 2

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Asker 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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Valerenga 2 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Asker 3–3 Valerenga 2 (6 last)

Valerenga 21-4Asker
Asker1-4Valerenga 2
Valerenga 22-1Asker
Valerenga 20-5Asker
Asker1-2Valerenga 2
Asker2-0Valerenga 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Asker 1602 · Valerenga 2 1504

	Asker	Draw	Valerenga 2
Our model	73%	15%	12%
Market	73%	14%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.6 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Asker (rating 1602 vs 1504).
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Asker	Valerenga 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.2	2.2 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.85

2 (+2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.85

Under 4.51.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22
X	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:59 +23’	1.22	6.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Asker 3–0–3 Valerenga 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Valerenga 2	1-4 HT 0-3	Asker
08/08/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Asker	1-4 HT 1-3	Valerenga 2
11/04/22 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Valerenga 2	2-1 HT 1-1	Asker
09/10/21 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Valerenga 2	0-5 HT 0-3	Asker
19/07/21 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Asker	1-2 HT 0-2	Valerenga 2
18/09/17 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Asker	2-0 HT 1-0	Valerenga 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Asker	14	12	1	1	45	14	37
2	Heming	14	9	2	3	32	19	29
3	Gamle Oslo	14	9	1	4	48	27	28
4	IF Ready	14	7	5	2	34	21	26
5	Baerum	14	8	1	5	44	27	25
6	Valerenga 2	14	8	1	5	32	39	25
7	Frigg	14	6	4	4	34	27	22
8	FK Union Carl Berner	14	7	0	7	23	20	21
9	Nordstrand	14	5	1	8	23	30	16
10	KFUM 2	14	4	2	8	26	38	14
11	Ullern	14	3	2	9	23	35	11
12	Grei	14	3	1	10	24	48	10
13	Lokomotiv Oslo	14	3	1	10	22	48	10
14	Konnerud	14	3	0	11	21	38	9

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Asker	Valerenga 2
IF Ready	3-0 W	2-1 W
FK Union Carl Berner	2-1 W	2-1 W
Ullern	3-2 W	3-1 W
Nordstrand	2-0 W	3-2 W
Lokomotiv Oslo	6-0 W	3-2 W
Gamle Oslo	0-4 L	3-8 L
Baerum	4-2 W	3-6 L
Heming	5-0 W	1-6 L
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Asker (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Asker

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
27/07	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
27/06	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-2	7	4	W
20/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
13/06	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-0	6-0	4	2	W
30/05	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-2	2-2	6	6	D
25/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-2	0-4	8	3	L
16/05	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	3-2	4-2	4	4	W
09/05	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-0	5-0	9	4	W
02/05	Frigg Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	1	4	W

Valerenga 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-2	3-2	7	6	W
25/07	Baerum Norway Division 3 Group 1	2-4	3-6	6	4	L
26/06	FK Union Carl Berner Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
21/06	IF Ready Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
06/06	Nordstrand Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	3-2	5	5	W
31/05	Lokomotiv Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
25/05	Heming Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-3	1-6	11	4	L
15/05	KFUM 2 Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
10/05	Ullern Norway Division 3 Group 1	0-1	3-1	3	5	W
02/05	Gamle Oslo Norway Division 3 Group 1	1-5	3-8	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Asker vs Valerenga 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Asker win (73%). Probabilities: Asker 73%, draw 14%, Valerenga 2 13%.

How many goals are expected in Asker vs Valerenga 2?

The model expects 4.6 goals (Asker 3.23 · Valerenga 2 1.37), with a 50% chance of over 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Asker vs Valerenga 2?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.