Football · South Korea K League 2 · 16/08, 12:30

Prediction: Paju Frontier FC vs Seongnam FC

Team pages: Paju Frontier FC · Seongnam FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Paju Frontier FC0.91

Seongnam FC1.15

1X2

28% 31% 41%

Paju Frontier FC Draw Seongnam FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Paju Frontier FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Seongnam FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Paju Frontier FC 1–0 Seongnam FC (1 last)

Seongnam FC0-1Paju Frontier FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paju Frontier FC 1474 · Seongnam FC 1488

	Paju Frontier FC	Draw	Seongnam FC
Our model	27%	33%	40%
Market	29%	30%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paju Frontier FC	Seongnam FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.5	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 4.1	1.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.00

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.45 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.15
2	2.30 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.19

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:32 +10’	2.90	3.00	2.30
09:13 +15’	3.10▲	3.00	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:49	3.50	3.19	2.17
23:35 +1’	3.45▼	3.15▼	2.19▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paju Frontier FC 1–0–0 Seongnam FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 South Korea K League 2	Seongnam FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Paju Frontier FC

Standings · South Korea K League 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Suwon Bluewings	20	12	4	4	29	17	40
2	Seoul E-Land FC	20	11	4	5	36	25	37
3	Suwon FC	19	10	6	3	39	24	36
4	Busan I Park	20	11	3	6	37	29	36
5	Daegu FC	20	10	5	5	39	30	35
6	Hwaseong FC	20	10	5	5	34	22	35
7	Gimpo FC	20	7	9	4	25	21	30
8	Chungnam Asan FC	20	7	7	6	29	24	28
9	Gyeongnam FC	20	6	7	7	27	28	25
10	Seongnam FC	19	5	8	6	20	22	23
11	Yongin FC	20	4	10	6	25	29	22
12	Paju Frontier FC	20	6	3	11	19	25	21
13	Cheonan City	20	4	8	8	26	29	20
14	Chungbuk Cheongju	20	2	13	5	23	33	19
15	Ansan Greeners FC	20	5	4	11	21	37	19
16	Jeonnam Dragons	19	2	7	10	21	34	13
17	Gimhae FC 2008	19	2	5	12	16	37	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paju Frontier FC	Seongnam FC
Suwon FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Suwon Bluewings	0-0 D	0-1 L
Daegu FC	0-1 L	2-3 L
Busan I Park	1-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Seongnam FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Paju Frontier FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Suwon FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
02/08	Jeonnam Dragons South Korea K League 2	0-0	2-1	6	4	W
29/07	Bucheon South Korea Cup	0-0	0-3	3	4	L
26/07	Ansan Greeners FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
19/07	Suwon Bluewings South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
15/07	Gangneung City South Korea Cup	0-0	3-2	6	2	W
11/07	Hwaseong FC South Korea K League 2	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
04/07	Yongin FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
05/06	Daegu FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
30/05	Busan I Park South Korea K League 2	0-1	1-4	6	2	L

Seongnam FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Cheonan City South Korea K League 2	2-1	3-2	3	2	W
01/08	Chungnam Asan FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-2	2	1	L
29/07	Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea Cup	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
18/07	Busan I Park South Korea K League 2	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
15/07	Pocheon Citizen FC South Korea Cup	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
11/07	Daegu FC South Korea K League 2	1-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/07	Suwon Bluewings South Korea K League 2	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
05/06	Gimhae FC 2008 South Korea K League 2	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
30/05	Suwon FC South Korea K League 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
24/05	Seoul E-Land FC South Korea K League 2	0-2	1-3	1	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paju Frontier FC vs Seongnam FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Seongnam FC win (41%). Probabilities: Paju Frontier FC 28%, draw 31%, Seongnam FC 41%.

How many goals are expected in Paju Frontier FC vs Seongnam FC?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Paju Frontier FC 0.91 · Seongnam FC 1.15), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Paju Frontier FC vs Seongnam FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.