Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 08/08, 15:00

Prediction: Notodden vs Sandviken

Team pages: Notodden · Sandviken

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Notodden1.91

Sandviken1.11

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Notodden Draw Sandviken

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Notodden 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWLWWW

Sandviken 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWDLWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Notodden 1–1–1 Sandviken (3 last)

Sandviken0-4Notodden
Notodden0-1Sandviken
Sandviken2-2Notodden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Notodden 1556 · Sandviken 1476

	Notodden	Draw	Sandviken
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Notodden (rating 1556 vs 1476).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Notodden	Sandviken
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.6	1.8 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.20

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.83

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.21
2	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 5.42 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +2’	1.61	3.90	4.20
20:20 +11’	1.60▼	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +44’	1.52	4.21	5.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Notodden 1–1–1 Sandviken

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Sandviken	0-4 HT 0-2	Notodden
31/08/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Notodden	0-1 HT 0-0	Sandviken
10/05/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Sandviken	2-2 HT 1-1	Notodden

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	14	10	2	2	28	15	32
2	Kvik Halden FK	14	8	3	3	27	18	27
3	Brattvåg	14	8	2	4	26	15	26
4	Mjondalen	14	8	2	4	27	19	26
5	Bjarg	14	8	1	5	25	20	25
6	Notodden	14	7	3	4	21	11	24
7	Træff	14	6	4	4	27	23	22
8	Sotra	14	6	3	5	27	14	21
9	Pors Grenland	14	5	4	5	16	18	19
10	Arendal	14	3	5	6	18	23	14
11	Sandviken	14	4	2	8	21	32	14
12	Lysekloster	14	3	5	6	17	28	14
13	Vidar	14	1	3	10	13	37	6
14	Eik Tønsberg	14	1	1	12	16	36	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Notodden	Sandviken
Mjondalen	1-0 W	0-4 L
Lysekloster	2-0 W	2-3 L
Jerv	0-0 D	1-2 L
Brattvåg	0-2 L	1-0 W
Kvik Halden FK	1-1 D	4-5 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Notodden (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Notodden

WDWLDWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/07	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
27/06	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
20/06	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-2	9	5	L
14/06	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/05	Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
25/05	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
16/05	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	2-1	2	2	W
09/05	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
03/05	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	4-0	5-0	6	3	W

Sandviken

DWDLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	3-3	4-5	12	5	L
25/07	Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	6-5	6	6	W
27/06	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	0-4	3	4	L
20/06	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	2-3	2	7	L
14/06	Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-2	3	0	L
31/05	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	9	W
23/05	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
16/05	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/05	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	4-2	2	3	W
03/05	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Notodden vs Sandviken?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Notodden win (55%). Probabilities: Notodden 55%, draw 24%, Sandviken 21%.

How many goals are expected in Notodden vs Sandviken?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Notodden 1.91 · Sandviken 1.11), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Notodden vs Sandviken?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.