Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Jerv vs Notodden

Team pages: Jerv · Notodden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Jerv1.65

Notodden0.97

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Jerv Draw Notodden

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Jerv 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Notodden 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Jerv 2–4–0 Notodden (6 last)

Notodden0-0Jerv
Jerv2-2Notodden
Notodden2-3Jerv
Jerv0-0Notodden
Notodden0-1Jerv
Notodden1-1Jerv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jerv 1570 · Notodden 1547

	Jerv	Draw	Notodden
Our model	52%	27%	21%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jerv: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jerv	Notodden
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.8	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.90

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.21
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.84 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +7’	1.65	3.90	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:42 +26’	1.54	4.21	4.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jerv 2–4–0 Notodden

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Notodden	0-0 HT 0-0	Jerv
20/09/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	2-2 HT 1-0	Notodden
25/05/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Notodden	2-3 HT 1-1	Jerv
19/10/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	0-0 HT 0-0	Notodden
29/06/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Notodden	0-1 HT 0-1	Jerv
29/09/19 Norway Division 1	Notodden	1-1 HT 1-0	Jerv

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	20	15	3	2	43	18	48
2	Brattvåg	20	12	3	5	41	24	39
3	Bjarg	20	12	2	6	42	26	38
4	Mjondalen	20	12	2	6	36	27	38
5	Sotra	20	11	3	6	42	20	36
6	Notodden	20	10	5	5	30	16	35
7	Kvik Halden FK	20	9	4	7	28	24	31
8	Træff	20	8	6	6	36	36	30
9	Arendal	20	7	5	8	28	34	26
10	Pors Grenland	20	6	5	9	22	27	23
11	Sandviken	20	5	4	11	29	43	19
12	Lysekloster	20	3	5	12	21	42	14
13	Vidar	20	2	4	14	18	53	10
14	Eik Tønsberg	20	2	1	17	21	47	7

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jerv	Notodden
Kvik Halden FK	2-0 W	0-0 D
Brattvåg	3-1 W	0-3 L
Mjondalen	3-0 W	1-0 W
Sandviken	2-2 D	1-0 W
Træff	2-3 L	1-1 D
Lysekloster	1-2 L	3-0 W
Sotra	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Jerv (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jerv

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
13/09	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-1	8	2	W
05/09	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	3-0	2	2	W
30/08	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
16/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-2	7	1	D
08/08	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	4-0	8	5	W
02/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-2	2-3	6	4	L
26/07	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
28/06	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	3-1	3	7	W
21/06	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-1	8	3	W

Notodden

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	4-1	2	1	W
13/09	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
30/08	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
15/08	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-3	8	2	L
08/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
01/08	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
25/07	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
27/06	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
20/06	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-2	9	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jerv vs Notodden?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jerv win (53%). Probabilities: Jerv 53%, draw 25%, Notodden 22%.

How many goals are expected in Jerv vs Notodden?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Jerv 1.65 · Notodden 0.97), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Jerv vs Notodden?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.