Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 10/10, 14:00

Prediction: Sotra vs Kvik Halden FK

Team pages: Sotra · Kvik Halden FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Sotra2.11

Kvik Halden FK1.15

1X2

59% 22% 19%

Sotra Draw Kvik Halden FK

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sotra 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Kvik Halden FK 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLLWL

Head-to-head

Sotra 2–1–3 Kvik Halden FK (6 last)

Kvik Halden FK2-1Sotra
Sotra3-0Kvik Halden FK
Kvik Halden FK0-0Sotra
Sotra2-0Kvik Halden FK
Kvik Halden FK3-1Sotra
Sotra0-3Kvik Halden FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sotra 1558 · Kvik Halden FK 1466

	Sotra	Draw	Kvik Halden FK
Our model	59%	22%	19%
Market	59%	21%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sotra (rating 1558 vs 1466).
H2H favours Kvik Halden FK: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sotra	Kvik Halden FK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	3.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.58
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.64 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:24 +11’	1.50	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +106’	1.52	4.30	4.93
12:49	1.47▼	4.58▲	5.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sotra 2–1–3 Kvik Halden FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/06/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Kvik Halden FK	2-1 HT 0-0	Sotra
28/09/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Sotra	3-0 HT 3-0	Kvik Halden FK
14/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Kvik Halden FK	0-0 HT 0-0	Sotra
12/08/23 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Sotra	2-0 HT 0-0	Kvik Halden FK
17/06/23 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Kvik Halden FK	3-1 HT 2-0	Sotra
27/08/22 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Sotra	0-3 HT 0-2	Kvik Halden FK

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	22	16	4	2	47	21	52
2	Brattvåg	22	14	3	5	47	28	45
3	Bjarg	22	14	2	6	47	28	44
4	Mjondalen	22	14	2	6	43	28	44
5	Sotra	22	12	3	7	47	25	39
6	Notodden	22	10	5	7	31	20	35
7	Kvik Halden FK	22	10	4	8	34	27	34
8	Træff	22	8	6	8	36	44	30
9	Pors Grenland	22	7	5	10	28	31	26
10	Arendal	22	7	5	10	30	38	26
11	Sandviken	22	7	4	11	33	45	25
12	Lysekloster	22	3	6	13	26	48	15
13	Eik Tønsberg	22	3	1	18	24	50	10
14	Vidar	22	2	4	16	20	60	10

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sotra	Kvik Halden FK
Brattvåg	2-3 L	0-1 L
Mjondalen	1-3 L	0-1 L
Sandviken	3-0 W	5-4 W
Træff	2-1 W	4-0 W
Bjarg	3-1 W	2-3 L
Arendal	3-0 W	0-2 L
Notodden	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sotra

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
26/09	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	3-2	3	0	W
19/09	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-3	1-3	4	3	L
12/09	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-0	3	3	W
05/09	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/08	Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	3-1	7	4	W
16/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
02/08	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	3-0	3-0	12	3	W
25/07	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-1	3	1	L

Kvik Halden FK

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	2-3	2	4	L
27/09	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/09	Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
13/09	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-2	4	4	L
05/09	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
15/08	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
08/08	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
01/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	3-3	5-4	8	5	W
26/07	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-1	14	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sotra vs Kvik Halden FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sotra win (59%). Probabilities: Sotra 59%, draw 22%, Kvik Halden FK 19%.

How many goals are expected in Sotra vs Kvik Halden FK?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Sotra 2.11 · Kvik Halden FK 1.15), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sotra vs Kvik Halden FK?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.