Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 17/10, 14:00
Prediction: Madla vs Staal Jørpeland
Team pages: Madla · Staal Jørpeland
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.28Total
Madla3
Staal Jørpeland1.28
1X2
Madla
Draw
Staal Jørpeland
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Madla
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Staal Jørpeland
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Madla
3–1–2
Staal Jørpeland
(6 last)
- Staal Jørpeland0-3Madla
- Madla3-2Staal Jørpeland
- Staal Jørpeland1-4Madla
- Staal Jørpeland2-1Madla
- Madla2-5Staal Jørpeland
- Madla3-3Staal Jørpeland
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Madla 1570 · Staal Jørpeland 1453
| Madla | Draw | Staal Jørpeland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 16% | 13% |
| Market | 72% | 16% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madla (rating 1570 vs 1453).
- H2H favours Madla: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Madla | Staal Jørpeland | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.8 / 1 | 2 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.3 | 2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Madla 3–1–2 Staal Jørpeland
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4 | Staal Jørpeland | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Madla |
| 02/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Madla | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Staal Jørpeland |
| 10/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5 | Staal Jørpeland | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Madla |
| 27/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2 | Staal Jørpeland | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Madla |
| 02/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2 | Madla | 2-5 HT 1-3 | Staal Jørpeland |
| 31/08/23 Norway Division 3 Group 3 | Madla | 3-3 HT 3-0 | Staal Jørpeland |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 60 | 28 | 48 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 23 | 13 | 4 | 6 | 54 | 34 | 43 |
| 3 | Flekkerøy | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 45 | 37 | 39 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 23 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 51 | 31 | 38 |
| 5 | Varhaug | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 42 | 37 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking 2 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 34 | 35 |
| 7 | Brodd | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 33 |
| 8 | Stabaek 2 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 48 | 49 | 33 |
| 9 | Vag FK | 23 | 10 | 2 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 32 |
| 10 | Odd II | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 50 | 29 |
| 11 | Staal Jørpeland | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 45 | 58 | 26 |
| 12 | Haugesund 2 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 42 | 63 | 25 |
| 13 | Hinna | 23 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 42 | 67 | 23 |
| 14 | Åkra | 23 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 27 | 68 | 15 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Madla | Staal Jørpeland |
|---|---|---|
| Varhaug | 3-1 W | 2-4 L |
| Brodd | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Åkra | 6-0 W | 3-4 L |
| Haugesund 2 | 1-1 D | 3-4 L |
| Hinna | 4-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Odd II | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Viking 2 | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Vag FK | 3-2 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Madla (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Madla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/10 | Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 26/09 | Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 21/09 | Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 12/09 | Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
4-1 | 4-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/08 | Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
Staal Jørpeland
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 02/10 | Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-2 | 4-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/09 | Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 21/09 | Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 12/09 | Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 30/08 | Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
0-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4 |
1-1 | 3-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Madla vs Staal Jørpeland?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Madla win (72%). Probabilities: Madla 72%, draw 16%, Staal Jørpeland 13%.
How many goals are expected in Madla vs Staal Jørpeland?
The model expects 4.28 goals (Madla 3 · Staal Jørpeland 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Madla vs Staal Jørpeland?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.