Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 12/09, 15:30

Prediction: Herd vs Orkla

Team pages: Herd · Orkla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.4Total

Herd2.81

Orkla1.59

1X2

63% 17% 20%

Herd Draw Orkla

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Herd 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLLWLL

Orkla 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLLDW

Head-to-head

Herd 1–0 Orkla (1 last)

Orkla1-3Herd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herd 1486 · Orkla 1423

	Herd	Draw	Orkla
Our model	63%	18%	19%
Market	63%	17%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Herd (rating 1486 vs 1423).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herd	Orkla
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.8	2.2 / 3.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	1.8 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.42

X5.25

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
17:15 +80’	1.42	5.25	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Herd 1–0–0 Orkla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Orkla	1-3 HT 1-0	Herd

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	18	12	3	3	48	19	39
2	Strindheim	18	11	3	4	44	28	36
3	Melhus	18	10	5	3	47	23	35
4	Herd	18	8	3	7	42	30	27
5	Rosenborg 2	18	7	4	7	36	30	25
6	Spjelkavik	18	7	4	7	36	36	25
7	Byåsen	18	7	4	7	34	37	25
8	Molde 2	17	6	4	7	47	51	22
9	Kvik Trondheim	17	6	3	8	31	42	21
10	Ranheim 2	17	5	5	7	43	58	20
11	NTNUI	18	4	6	8	23	38	18
12	Orkla	18	5	3	10	35	51	18
13	Nardo	17	5	2	10	33	40	17
14	Aalesunds FK 2	16	5	1	10	29	45	16

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herd	Orkla
Melhus	1-4 L	3-8 L
NTNUI	1-2 L	3-1 W
Ranheim 2	9-0 W	3-3 D
Aalesunds FK 2	0-3 L	2-4 L
Volda	0-1 L	2-5 L
Kvik Trondheim	5-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Herd (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herd

DWWDLLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-4	8	1	L
30/08	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
15/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	9-0	6	2	W
10/08	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
31/07	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/07	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	5	L
27/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
20/06	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-1	–	–	W
13/06	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	4-1	7	5	W
30/05	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-2	–	–	D

Orkla

DLWLLLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	3-3	4	6	D
15/08	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-5	3-8	3	3	L
03/08	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-2	2	4	L
25/07	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-3	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	3-5	–	–	L
20/06	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
13/06	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	2-5	–	–	L
30/05	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herd vs Orkla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Herd win (63%). Probabilities: Herd 63%, draw 17%, Orkla 20%.

How many goals are expected in Herd vs Orkla?

The model expects 4.4 goals (Herd 2.81 · Orkla 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Herd vs Orkla?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.