Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Rade IL vs Elverum

Team pages: Rade IL · Elverum

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.17Total

Rade IL2.15

Elverum2.02

1X2

42% 21% 37%

Rade IL Draw Elverum

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Rade IL 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWDWLW

Elverum 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Rade IL 1–0 Elverum (1 last)

Elverum3-7Rade IL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rade IL 1531 · Elverum 1585

	Rade IL	Draw	Elverum
Our model	42%	22%	37%
Market	42%	21%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 4.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elverum (rating 1531 vs 1585).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rade IL	Elverum
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 2.3	2.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 1.6	1.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.4	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X4.20

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 1.25 · xG: 4.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:21 +12’	2.15	4.20	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rade IL 1–0–0 Elverum

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Elverum	3-7 HT 2-1	Rade IL

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	18	14	2	2	66	25	44
2	Elverum	18	12	2	4	47	27	38
3	Rade IL	18	11	2	5	64	32	35
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	18	10	2	6	25	14	32
5	Lyn 1896 II	17	9	2	6	44	38	29
6	Ørn Horten	17	8	4	5	32	26	28
7	Rælingen	18	8	3	7	35	43	27
8	Sandefjord 2	18	8	1	9	46	40	25
9	Oppsal	18	7	3	8	27	27	24
10	Drøbak/Frogn	17	6	4	7	31	25	22
11	Fram	18	6	3	9	32	37	21
12	Sarpsborg 2	17	5	3	9	37	41	18
13	Brumunddal	18	2	3	13	19	78	9
14	Bjørkelangen	18	1	0	17	13	65	3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rade IL

LWWLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/08	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	2-3	6	4	L
15/08	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
01/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	5-1	8-1	2	1	W
25/07	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
28/06	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-5	6	4	L
20/06	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
13/06	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	5-1	7-2	5	1	W
30/05	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-7	1-8	–	–	L

Elverum

WWWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-3	4-3	–	–	W
15/08	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/08	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
25/07	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-3	5-3	–	–	W
27/06	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
20/06	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
31/05	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	4-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rade IL vs Elverum?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rade IL win (42%). Probabilities: Rade IL 42%, draw 21%, Elverum 37%.

How many goals are expected in Rade IL vs Elverum?

The model expects 4.17 goals (Rade IL 2.15 · Elverum 2.02), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rade IL vs Elverum?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.