Football · Norway Division 3 Group 5 · 16/08, 16:00

Prediction: Lillestrøm 2 vs Harstad

Team pages: Lillestrøm 2 · Harstad

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.51Total

Lillestrøm 22.23

Harstad2.28

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Lillestrøm 2 Draw Harstad

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

Lillestrøm 2 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLLL

Harstad 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWDWWW

Head-to-head

Lillestrøm 2 2–2–2 Harstad (6 last)

Harstad2-3Lillestrøm 2
Harstad4-3Lillestrøm 2
Lillestrøm 22-0Harstad
Lillestrøm 21-1Harstad
Harstad1-0Lillestrøm 2
Harstad0-0Lillestrøm 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lillestrøm 2 1475 · Harstad 1565

	Lillestrøm 2	Draw	Harstad
Our model	39%	21%	41%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.51 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Harstad (rating 1475 vs 1565).
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lillestrøm 2	Harstad
Goals for / against (FT)	3.4 / 2.7	3.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.3	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.80

Under 4.252.00

Diff.: 1.45 · xG: 5.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63
X	3.10 → 3.00▼	Bet365 3.00
2	2.45 → 2.50▲	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +3’	2.60	3.10	2.45
23:31 +6’	2.63▲	3.00▼	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lillestrøm 2 2–2–2 Harstad

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Harstad	2-3 HT 2-1	Lillestrøm 2
16/10/22 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Harstad	4-3	Lillestrøm 2
26/05/22 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Lillestrøm 2	2-0 HT 0-0	Harstad
06/10/19 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Lillestrøm 2	1-1	Harstad
28/07/19 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Harstad	1-0	Lillestrøm 2
14/10/17 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Harstad	0-0	Lillestrøm 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 5

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Skedsmo	15	11	0	4	35	22	33
2	Fløya	16	10	2	4	43	25	32
3	Finnsnes IL	15	9	2	4	31	22	29
4	Harstad	15	7	3	5	49	24	24
5	Alta	15	6	5	4	31	26	23
6	Skjetten	16	7	2	7	37	34	23
7	Fauske/Sprint	15	6	4	5	41	51	22
8	Lillestrøm 2	15	7	0	8	47	35	21
9	Strømsgodset 2	15	6	2	7	30	33	20
10	Kongsvinger 2	15	6	2	7	32	36	20
11	Skjervøy	16	6	2	8	27	44	20
12	IL Ulfstind	16	4	2	10	30	52	14
13	Tromso 2	15	3	4	8	26	31	13
14	Bossekop	15	3	2	10	24	48	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lillestrøm 2	Harstad
Skjetten	1-2 L	2-1 W
Kongsvinger 2	4-5 L	6-1 W
IL Ulfstind	10-1 W	1-1 D
Fauske/Sprint	3-4 L	10-1 W
Strømsgodset 2	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Harstad (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lillestrøm 2

WLWLLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Skjetten Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
03/08	Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-3	4-5	2	4	L
25/07	Fløya Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
28/06	Tromso 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	4-0	5-3	4	2	W
20/06	IL Ulfstind Norway Division 3 Group 5	4-0	10-1	4	6	W
14/06	Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	3-4	–	–	L
30/05	Alta Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-4	2-4	6	6	L
26/05	Strømsgodset 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-1	3-1	6	1	W
16/05	Skedsmo Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
09/05	Harstad Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-2	3-2	–	–	W

Harstad

LLWWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Skjervøy Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-0	7-0	–	–	W
02/08	Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5	3-2	3-2	–	–	W
25/07	Fauske/Sprint Norway Division 3 Group 5	5-0	10-1	–	–	W
27/06	IL Ulfstind Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
21/06	Kongsvinger 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-0	6-1	–	–	W
13/06	Strømsgodset 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
30/05	Bossekop Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-1	5-1	–	–	W
25/05	Skjetten Norway Division 3 Group 5	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
14/05	Skjervøy Norway Division 3 Group 5	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/05	Lillestrøm 2 Norway Division 3 Group 5	2-1	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lillestrøm 2 vs Harstad?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Harstad win (38%). Probabilities: Lillestrøm 2 36%, draw 26%, Harstad 38%.

How many goals are expected in Lillestrøm 2 vs Harstad?

The model expects 4.51 goals (Lillestrøm 2 2.23 · Harstad 2.28), with a 53% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lillestrøm 2 vs Harstad?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.