Prediction: Blacktown Spartans vs Newcastle Jets NPL
Expected goals: 3.89 (Blacktown Spartans 2.48 · Newcastle Jets NPL 1.41). The model gives 60% home, 20% draw, 20% away. Over 3.5 goals (53%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Blacktown Spartans with 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses over 10 games; Newcastle Jets NPL has piled up 2-2-6 in the same span. In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Blacktown Spartans won 0 and Newcastle Jets NPL 1, with 2 draws.
| Blacktown Spartans | Draw | Newcastle Jets NPL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Market | 60% | 20% | 20% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Blacktown Spartans (rating 1535 vs 1452).
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Blacktown Spartans | Newcastle Jets NPL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.3 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.7 | 1.4 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.2 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blacktown Spartans 0–2–1 Newcastle Jets NPL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Newcastle Jets NPL | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Blacktown Spartans |
| 31/05/25 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Newcastle Jets NPL | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Blacktown Spartans |
| 15/02/25 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Blacktown Spartans | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Newcastle Jets NPL |
Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Blacktown Spartans | 21 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 49 | 28 | 44 |
| 2 | Northern Tigers | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 37 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Bankstown City Lions FC | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 34 | 38 |
| 4 | Canterbury Bankstown FC | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 52 | 35 | 35 |
| 5 | Macarthur Rams | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 26 | 21 | 35 |
| 6 | Hills United FC | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 34 | 32 |
| 7 | Bulls FC Academy | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 28 | 30 |
| 8 | Rydalmere Lions FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 30 | 33 | 28 |
| 9 | Hakoah Sydney City East | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 38 | 36 | 28 |
| 10 | Central Coast Mariners U21 | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 41 | 27 |
| 11 | Hurstville FC | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 32 | 35 | 26 |
| 12 | Inter Lions | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 25 | 37 | 24 |
| 13 | Newcastle Jets NPL | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 43 | 22 |
| 14 | Dulwich Hill | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 37 | 22 |
| 15 | Prospect United | 21 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 20 | 38 | 17 |
| 16 | Western City Rangers | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 23 | 43 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Blacktown Spartans | Newcastle Jets NPL |
|---|---|---|
| Dulwich Hill | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Bankstown City Lions FC | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Hakoah Sydney City East | 1-2 L | 3-5 L |
| Bulls FC Academy | 3-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Hurstville FC | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Macarthur Rams | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Inter Lions | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Blacktown Spartans (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blacktown Spartans
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 12/06 | Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 06/06 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1 |
4-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/05 | Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 25/04 | Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
Newcastle Jets NPL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 20/06 | Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 13/06 | Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-3 | 5-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1 |
2-3 | 3-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 26/04 | Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blacktown Spartans vs Newcastle Jets NPL?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Blacktown Spartans win (60%). Probabilities: Blacktown Spartans 60%, draw 20%, Newcastle Jets NPL 20%.
How many goals are expected in Blacktown Spartans vs Newcastle Jets NPL?
The model expects 3.89 goals (Blacktown Spartans 2.48 · Newcastle Jets NPL 1.41), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Blacktown Spartans vs Newcastle Jets NPL?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.