Football · Sweden Elitettan · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: Elfsborg (W) vs Umea IK (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Elfsborg (W)1.53

Umea IK (W)0.84

1X2

53% 26% 20%

Elfsborg (W) Draw Umea IK (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Elfsborg (W) 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWWWWDD

Umea IK (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWLLLL

Head-to-head

Elfsborg (W) 1–1 Umea IK (W) (2 last)

Elfsborg (W)1-0Umea IK (W)
Umea IK (W)2-1Elfsborg (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elfsborg (W) 1594 · Umea IK (W) 1483

	Elfsborg (W)	Draw	Umea IK (W)
Our model	52%	28%	19%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elfsborg (W) (rating 1594 vs 1483).
High corners: 14.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elfsborg (W)	Umea IK (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.2	1.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.1	4.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.2 / 0	0.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.60

24.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.93

2 (+0.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.25 → 4.25	Bet365 4.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +4’	1.67	3.60	4.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elfsborg (W) 1–0–1 Umea IK (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Sweden Elitettan	Elfsborg (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Umea IK (W)
13/04/25 Sweden Elitettan	Umea IK (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	Elfsborg (W)

Standings · Sweden Elitettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Linköpings FC (W)	10	8	2	0	22	7	26
2	Elfsborg (W)	10	7	3	0	16	2	24
3	IFK Goteborg (W)	10	7	2	1	23	9	23
4	KIF Orebro (W)	10	7	1	2	24	13	22
5	Trelleborgs FF (W)	10	6	0	4	17	15	18
6	Enskede IK (W)	10	5	1	4	19	15	16
7	Umea IK (W)	10	4	2	4	17	13	14
8	Orebro SK (W)	10	4	2	4	10	13	14
9	Husqvarna FF (W)	10	3	3	4	13	17	12
10	Jitex BK (W)	10	2	3	5	10	15	9
11	Gamla Upsala SK (W)	10	2	3	5	11	18	9
12	Alingsås IF (W)	10	2	2	6	5	14	8
13	Sandvikens IF (W)	10	0	2	8	6	25	2
14	BK Hacken (W) II	10	0	0	10	7	24	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elfsborg (W)	Umea IK (W)
Enskede IK (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
BK Hacken (W) II	1-0 W	4-1 W
Alingsås IF (W)	1-0 W	0-2 L
Jitex BK (W)	2-0 W	4-0 W
Linköpings FC (W)	0-0 D	1-2 L
Gamla Upsala SK (W)	2-0 W	3-2 W
Orebro SK (W)	2-0 W	0-1 L
KIF Orebro (W)	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Elfsborg (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elfsborg (W)

WWWDWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/06	Husqvarna FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	1-1	14	1	D
13/06	IFK Goteborg (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
30/05	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	3-0	8	2	W
23/05	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
15/05	Alingsås IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/05	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
02/05	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
26/04	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
03/04	Orebro SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-0	11	1	W
28/03	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	2-0	3-0	–	–	W

Umea IK (W)

WDWDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/06	Orebro SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	0-1	13	0	L
14/06	Linköpings FC (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
30/05	Trelleborgs FF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
23/05	Alingsås IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
16/05	Sandvikens IF (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
09/05	Gamla Upsala SK (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
02/05	Enskede IK (W) Sweden Elitettan	1-0	1-1	9	2	D
25/04	BK Hacken (W) II Sweden Elitettan	2-1	4-1	–	–	W
06/04	KIF Orebro (W) Sweden Elitettan	0-0	2-2	2	1	D
28/03	Jitex BK (W) Sweden Elitettan	3-0	4-0	4	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elfsborg (W) vs Umea IK (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elfsborg (W) win (53%). Probabilities: Elfsborg (W) 53%, draw 26%, Umea IK (W) 20%.

How many goals are expected in Elfsborg (W) vs Umea IK (W)?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Elfsborg (W) 1.53 · Umea IK (W) 0.84), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Elfsborg (W) vs Umea IK (W)?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.