Football · Argentina Nacional B · 15/08, 22:00
Prediction: San Martin de Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn
Team pages: San Martin de Tucuman · Deportivo Madryn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
San Martin de Tucuman1.19
Deportivo Madryn0.78
1X2
San Martin de Tucuman
Draw
Deportivo Madryn
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
San Martin de Tucuman
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Madryn
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Martin de Tucuman
1–2–1
Deportivo Madryn
(4 last)
- Deportivo Madryn1-1San Martin de Tucuman
- Deportivo Madryn3-1San Martin de Tucuman
- San Martin de Tucuman0-0Deportivo Madryn
- Deportivo Madryn1-2San Martin de Tucuman
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Martin de Tucuman 1468 · Deportivo Madryn 1544
| San Martin de Tucuman | Draw | Deportivo Madryn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 33% | 23% |
| Market | 45% | 33% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.97 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Madryn (rating 1468 vs 1544).
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Martin de Tucuman | Deportivo Madryn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/70/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 1.1 / 2.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.7 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin de Tucuman 1–2–1 Deportivo Madryn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Madryn | 1-1 HT 1-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 10/08/25 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Madryn | 3-1 HT 3-0 | San Martin de Tucuman |
| 06/04/25 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin de Tucuman | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Madryn |
| 26/02/22 Argentina Nacional B | Deportivo Madryn | 1-2 HT 0-1 | San Martin de Tucuman |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 27 | 41 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 22 | 39 |
| 3 | Ferrocarril Midland | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 22 | 37 |
| 5 | Club Atletico Temperley | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 37 |
| 6 | Tristan Suarez | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 36 |
| 7 | Atletico Rafaela | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 34 |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipu | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 30 |
| 10 | CA Colegiales | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 30 |
| 11 | Almagro | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 30 |
| 12 | Quilmes | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 21 | 29 |
| 13 | Nueva Chicago | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 29 |
| 14 | San Martin SJ | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 22 | 27 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 24 | 26 |
| 16 | Agropecuario | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 26 |
| 17 | Patronato Parana | 23 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 24 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 39 | 19 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Martin de Tucuman
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 26/07 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 17/07 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 12/07 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
3-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 05/07 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 20/06 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 13/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 07/06 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
Deportivo Madryn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 11/07 | Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 0 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 21/06 | Los Andes Argentina Nacional B |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 13 | W |
| 14/06 | CA San Miguel Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 07/06 | CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 24/05 | CA Chaco For Ever Argentina Nacional B |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Martin de Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin de Tucuman win (45%). Probabilities: San Martin de Tucuman 45%, draw 33%, Deportivo Madryn 23%.
How many goals are expected in San Martin de Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn?
The model expects 1.97 goals (San Martin de Tucuman 1.19 · Deportivo Madryn 0.78), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Martin de Tucuman vs Deportivo Madryn?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.