Football · Sweden Superettan · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Falkenbergs FF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Varbergs BoIS FC2.12

Falkenbergs FF1.54

1X2

50% 24% 26%

Varbergs BoIS FC Draw Falkenbergs FF

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Varbergs BoIS FC 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLLWWW

Falkenbergs FF 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDWWLLW

Head-to-head

Varbergs BoIS FC 3–2–1 Falkenbergs FF (6 last)

Falkenbergs FF0-3Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC3-2Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF2-2Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC1-1Falkenbergs FF
Falkenbergs FF2-0Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC3-1Falkenbergs FF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varbergs BoIS FC 1584 · Falkenbergs FF 1516

	Varbergs BoIS FC	Draw	Falkenbergs FF
Our model	50%	23%	27%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varbergs BoIS FC (rating 1584 vs 1516).
H2H favours Varbergs BoIS FC: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varbergs BoIS FC	Falkenbergs FF
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	2.4 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	2.1 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +11’	1.83	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Varbergs BoIS FC 3–2–1 Falkenbergs FF

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Falkenbergs FF	0-3 HT 0-0	Varbergs BoIS FC
30/08/25 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Falkenbergs FF
29/03/25 Sweden Superettan	Falkenbergs FF	2-2 HT 1-1	Varbergs BoIS FC
28/01/23 Club Friendly List	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Falkenbergs FF
17/09/20 Sweden Allsvenskan	Falkenbergs FF	2-0 HT 1-0	Varbergs BoIS FC
29/06/20 Sweden Allsvenskan	Varbergs BoIS FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Falkenbergs FF

Standings · Sweden Superettan

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Falkenbergs FF	16	9	4	3	32	24	31
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	15	9	3	3	32	19	30
3	IFK Norrkoping	15	9	2	4	26	10	29
4	Ostersunds FK	16	7	5	4	26	21	26
5	Landskrona BoIS	15	7	4	4	22	16	25
6	Nordic United FC	15	7	4	4	25	22	25
7	Osters IF	15	7	2	6	24	25	23
8	Helsingborg	15	7	2	6	29	31	23
9	Ljungskile	16	6	4	6	23	21	22
10	IK Oddevold	15	5	5	5	28	26	20
11	Sandvikens IF	16	5	4	7	25	25	19
12	Norrby IF	16	3	9	4	21	23	18
13	IK Brage	16	4	5	7	28	29	17
14	Orebro SK	15	3	5	7	13	22	14
15	IFK Varnamo	16	3	2	11	17	34	11
16	GIF Sundsvall	16	3	0	13	13	36	9

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varbergs BoIS FC	Falkenbergs FF
IK Oddevold	4-2 W	2-1 W
Osters IF	2-1 W	3-1 W
Landskrona BoIS	2-3 L	1-2 L
GIF Sundsvall	1-0 W	2-1 W
Helsingborg	3-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Varbergs BoIS FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Varbergs BoIS FC

WWWWWLLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	1-1	4-2	3	2	W
11/07	Norrby IF Club Friendly List	0-2	4-2	–	–	W
27/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
22/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-3	7	5	L
15/06	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
10/06	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
30/05	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-1	5	6	W
24/05	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/05	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	1-1	3-1	6	3	W
13/05	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-0	3-0	2	4	W

Falkenbergs FF

WWWLDWWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-1	2-1	3	3	W
21/07	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	2-3	2-3	2	3	L
11/07	Landskrona BoIS Club Friendly List	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
26/06	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	1-2	4-2	3	2	W
21/06	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-1	5	5	W
14/06	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
09/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-4	2-4	7	2	L
30/05	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-1	3	0	W
23/05	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
17/05	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	2-0	4-1	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Falkenbergs FF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varbergs BoIS FC win (50%). Probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 50%, draw 24%, Falkenbergs FF 26%.

How many goals are expected in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Varbergs BoIS FC 2.12 · Falkenbergs FF 1.54), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Falkenbergs FF?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.