Football · Sweden Superettan · 10/10, 15:00

Prediction: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

Team pages: Ostersunds FK · Varbergs BoIS FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Ostersunds FK1.26

Varbergs BoIS FC0.94

1X2

43% 29% 27%

Ostersunds FK Draw Varbergs BoIS FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ostersunds FK 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDWDWD

Varbergs BoIS FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWDLWW

Head-to-head

Ostersunds FK 2–1–3 Varbergs BoIS FC (6 last)

Varbergs BoIS FC1-2Ostersunds FK
Varbergs BoIS FC1-1Ostersunds FK
Ostersunds FK0-1Varbergs BoIS FC
Ostersunds FK2-1Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC2-0Ostersunds FK
Varbergs BoIS FC1-0Ostersunds FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ostersunds FK 1556 · Varbergs BoIS FC 1511

	Ostersunds FK	Draw	Varbergs BoIS FC
Our model	42%	31%	26%
Market	44%	28%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ostersunds FK (rating 1556 vs 1511).
H2H favours Varbergs BoIS FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ostersunds FK	Varbergs BoIS FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.5	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.8	3.1 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.15
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.33
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.36 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +8’	2.05	3.25	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:02 +677’	2.15	3.33	3.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ostersunds FK 2–1–3 Varbergs BoIS FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Ostersunds FK
24/08/25 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Ostersunds FK
11/05/25 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	0-1 HT 0-1	Varbergs BoIS FC
27/07/24 Sweden Superettan	Ostersunds FK	2-1 HT 0-1	Varbergs BoIS FC
13/04/24 Sweden Superettan	Varbergs BoIS FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Ostersunds FK
18/02/23 Sweden Cup	Varbergs BoIS FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Ostersunds FK

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IFK Norrkoping	25	17	4	4	48	16	55
2	Falkenbergs FF	25	13	6	6	46	33	45
3	Varbergs BoIS FC	25	13	5	7	44	33	44
4	Ostersunds FK	25	11	10	4	33	24	43
5	Landskrona BoIS	25	11	7	7	39	26	40
6	Sandvikens IF	25	10	7	8	43	33	37
7	IK Oddevold	25	9	9	7	38	34	36
8	Osters IF	25	11	3	11	38	38	36
9	Nordic United FC	25	9	9	7	38	40	36
10	Helsingborg	25	8	6	11	36	45	30
11	IFK Varnamo	25	8	5	12	33	45	29
12	Ljungskile	25	6	7	12	31	38	25
13	Norrby IF	25	4	12	9	28	35	24
14	Orebro SK	25	5	9	11	27	39	24
15	IK Brage	25	5	8	12	39	48	23
16	GIF Sundsvall	25	6	1	18	19	53	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ostersunds FK	Varbergs BoIS FC
Falkenbergs FF	0-0 D	2-1 W
IK Brage	1-1 D	3-2 W
Orebro SK	1-0 W	1-2 L
IFK Varnamo	1-1 D	1-1 D
Osters IF	1-0 W	0-3 L
Norrby IF	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Varbergs BoIS FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ostersunds FK

DWWDDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	9	0	D
14/09	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
10/09	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	14	1	D
07/09	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
29/08	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
24/08	Ljungskile Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
16/08	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/08	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
01/08	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
26/07	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-2	5	4	D

Varbergs BoIS FC

LWLDLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-1	3-2	12	1	W
14/09	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/09	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
05/09	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	8	0	D
30/08	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	3-0	3-1	5	5	W
25/08	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	0-2	1-2	5	1	L
15/08	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
09/08	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	12	3	L
01/08	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
27/07	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-3	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ostersunds FK win (43%). Probabilities: Ostersunds FK 43%, draw 29%, Varbergs BoIS FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Ostersunds FK 1.26 · Varbergs BoIS FC 0.94), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.