Football · Sweden Superettan · 20/07, 19:00
Prediction: Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Norrby IF1.82
GIF Sundsvall1.07
1X2
Norrby IF
Draw
GIF Sundsvall
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Norrby IF
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
GIF Sundsvall
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Norrby IF
0–2–4
GIF Sundsvall
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Norrby IF 1485 · GIF Sundsvall 1413
| Norrby IF | Draw | GIF Sundsvall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Norrby IF (rating 1485 vs 1413).
- H2H favours GIF Sundsvall: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Norrby IF | GIF Sundsvall | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.7 | 0.7 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 4.6 | 2.2 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Norrby IF 0–2–4 GIF Sundsvall
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/23 Sweden Cup | GIF Sundsvall | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Norrby IF |
| 07/11/21 Sweden Superettan | Norrby IF | 1-4 HT 1-1 | GIF Sundsvall |
| 24/04/21 Sweden Superettan | GIF Sundsvall | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Norrby IF |
| 22/09/20 Sweden Superettan | Norrby IF | 0-1 HT 0-1 | GIF Sundsvall |
| 18/07/20 Sweden Superettan | GIF Sundsvall | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Norrby IF |
| 17/02/18 Sweden Cup | GIF Sundsvall | 4-2 HT 1-0 | Norrby IF |
Standings · Sweden Superettan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falkenbergs FF | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | IFK Norrkoping | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Landskrona BoIS | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 25 |
| 5 | Ostersunds FK | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| 6 | Nordic United FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 22 |
| 7 | IK Oddevold | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 20 |
| 8 | Osters IF | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 20 |
| 9 | Helsingborg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 20 |
| 10 | Sandvikens IF | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 19 |
| 11 | IK Brage | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 16 |
| 12 | Ljungskile | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Orebro SK | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | IFK Varnamo | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 31 | 10 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 31 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Norrby IF | GIF Sundsvall |
|---|---|---|
| Varbergs BoIS FC | 2-4 L | 0-1 L |
| IFK Norrkoping | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| IK Oddevold | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Osters IF | 1-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Ljungskile | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Landskrona BoIS | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Helsingborg | 3-3 D | 2-5 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Norrby IF (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Norrby IF
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Varbergs BoIS FC Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 21/06 | Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 14/06 | IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/06 | Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Ljungskile Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Helsingborg Sweden Superettan |
2-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
GIF Sundsvall
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | Helsingborg Sweden Superettan |
1-1 | 2-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 15/06 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
0-4 | 0-4 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 10/06 | Orebro SK Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/05 | Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 14/05 | Ljungskile Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Norrby IF win (54%). Probabilities: Norrby IF 54%, draw 25%, GIF Sundsvall 21%.
How many goals are expected in Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Norrby IF 1.82 · GIF Sundsvall 1.07), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.