Football · Sweden Superettan · 19/07, 15:00
Prediction: IFK Varnamo vs Ljungskile
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
IFK Varnamo1.43
Ljungskile1.5
1X2
IFK Varnamo
Draw
Ljungskile
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
IFK Varnamo
0-1-9 (W-D-L)
Ljungskile
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
IFK Varnamo
2–4
Ljungskile
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · IFK Varnamo 1393 · Ljungskile 1491
| IFK Varnamo | Draw | Ljungskile | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ljungskile (rating 1393 vs 1491).
- H2H favours Ljungskile: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| IFK Varnamo | Ljungskile | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.4 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.4 | 2.3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Varnamo 2–0–4 Ljungskile
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/19 Sweden 1.div Södra | Ljungskile | 3-0 HT 1-0 | IFK Varnamo |
| 02/06/19 Sweden 1.div Södra | IFK Varnamo | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ljungskile |
| 02/10/16 Sweden Superettan | Ljungskile | 2-0 HT 1-0 | IFK Varnamo |
| 10/04/16 Sweden Superettan | IFK Varnamo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Ljungskile |
| 04/10/15 Sweden Superettan | Ljungskile | 0-2 HT 0-2 | IFK Varnamo |
| 07/04/15 Sweden Superettan | IFK Varnamo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Ljungskile |
Standings · Sweden Superettan
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falkenbergs FF | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 28 |
| 2 | Varbergs BoIS FC | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 27 |
| 3 | IFK Norrkoping | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Landskrona BoIS | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 14 | 25 |
| 5 | Ostersunds FK | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 22 |
| 6 | Nordic United FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 22 |
| 7 | IK Oddevold | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 22 | 20 |
| 8 | Osters IF | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 20 |
| 9 | Helsingborg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 20 |
| 10 | Sandvikens IF | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 19 |
| 11 | IK Brage | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 16 |
| 12 | Ljungskile | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 16 |
| 13 | Norrby IF | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 14 | Orebro SK | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | IFK Varnamo | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 31 | 10 |
| 16 | GIF Sundsvall | 14 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 31 | 9 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | IFK Varnamo | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| IK Brage | 1-5 L | 2-2 D |
| Osters IF | 0-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Nordic United FC | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Norrby IF | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Orebro SK | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Varbergs BoIS FC | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Ostersunds FK | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 6 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Ljungskile (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
IFK Varnamo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 21/06 | IK Brage Sweden Superettan |
1-2 | 1-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/06 | Helsingborg Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 09/06 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Norrby IF Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Orebro SK Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan |
0-3 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Ljungskile
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Orebro SK Sweden Superettan |
1-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 09/06 | IK Brage Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 30/05 | Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 23/05 | Norrby IF Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Osters IF Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/05 | GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 02/05 | Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in IFK Varnamo vs Ljungskile?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ljungskile win (38%). Probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35%, draw 27%, Ljungskile 38%.
How many goals are expected in IFK Varnamo vs Ljungskile?
The model expects 2.94 goals (IFK Varnamo 1.43 · Ljungskile 1.5), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Ljungskile?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.