Football · Sweden Superettan · 01/08, 17:00

Prediction: IFK Norrkoping vs Helsingborg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

IFK Norrkoping2.06

Helsingborg1.05

1X2

60% 23% 18%

IFK Norrkoping Draw Helsingborg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Norrkoping 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWWWLW

Helsingborg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWWLLW

Head-to-head

IFK Norrkoping 4–2 Helsingborg (6 last)

Helsingborg0-2IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping2-0Helsingborg
Helsingborg0-1IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping3-4Helsingborg
Helsingborg3-2IFK Norrkoping
IFK Norrkoping5-0Helsingborg

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Norrkoping 1575 · Helsingborg 1477

	IFK Norrkoping	Draw	Helsingborg
Our model	60%	23%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IFK Norrkoping (rating 1575 vs 1477).
H2H favours IFK Norrkoping: 4-0-2.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Norrkoping	Helsingborg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.4	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +1’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Norrkoping 4–0–2 Helsingborg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Sweden Superettan	Helsingborg	0-2 HT 0-0	IFK Norrkoping
19/10/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping	2-0 HT 1-0	Helsingborg
09/05/22 Sweden Allsvenskan	Helsingborg	0-1 HT 0-0	IFK Norrkoping
06/12/20 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping	3-4 HT 3-4	Helsingborg
10/08/20 Sweden Allsvenskan	Helsingborg	3-2 HT 2-1	IFK Norrkoping
25/08/19 Sweden Allsvenskan	IFK Norrkoping	5-0 HT 2-0	Helsingborg

Standings · Sweden Superettan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Falkenbergs FF	16	9	4	3	32	24	31
2	Varbergs BoIS FC	15	9	3	3	32	19	30
3	IFK Norrkoping	15	9	2	4	26	10	29
4	Ostersunds FK	16	7	5	4	26	21	26
5	Landskrona BoIS	15	7	4	4	22	16	25
6	Nordic United FC	15	7	4	4	25	22	25
7	Osters IF	15	7	2	6	24	25	23
8	Helsingborg	15	7	2	6	29	31	23
9	Ljungskile	16	6	4	6	23	21	22
10	IK Oddevold	15	5	5	5	28	26	20
11	Sandvikens IF	16	5	4	7	25	25	19
12	Norrby IF	16	3	9	4	21	23	18
13	IK Brage	16	4	5	7	28	29	17
14	Orebro SK	15	3	5	7	13	22	14
15	IFK Varnamo	16	3	2	11	17	34	11
16	GIF Sundsvall	16	3	0	13	13	36	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Norrkoping	Helsingborg
Sandvikens IF	3-0 W	2-4 L
Varbergs BoIS FC	2-0 W	1-3 L
IK Oddevold	2-1 W	2-2 D
GIF Sundsvall	3-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: IFK Norrkoping (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IFK Norrkoping

WDDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	2-0	3-0	7	3	W
28/06	Norrby IF Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
21/06	Ostersunds FK Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
15/06	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/06	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	2-1	2-1	1	2	W
31/05	Helsingborg Sweden Superettan	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
25/05	Osters IF Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
16/05	IK Brage Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
13/05	Nordic United FC Sweden Superettan	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
09/05	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-0	3-1	10	3	W

Helsingborg

DLWLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/07	Falkenbergs FF Sweden Superettan	3-2	3-2	3	3	W
14/07	AB Copenhagen Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
28/06	Sandvikens IF Sweden Superettan	1-2	2-4	9	5	L
21/06	GIF Sundsvall Sweden Superettan	1-1	5-2	6	0	W
16/06	IFK Varnamo Sweden Superettan	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
11/06	Landskrona BoIS Sweden Superettan	0-1	0-3	10	5	L
31/05	IFK Norrkoping Sweden Superettan	0-0	0-2	4	7	L
26/05	Orebro SK Sweden Superettan	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
19/05	Varbergs BoIS FC Sweden Superettan	1-1	1-3	4	3	L
13/05	IK Oddevold Sweden Superettan	0-1	2-2	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Norrkoping vs Helsingborg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a IFK Norrkoping win (60%). Probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 60%, draw 23%, Helsingborg 18%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Norrkoping vs Helsingborg?

The model expects 3.11 goals (IFK Norrkoping 2.06 · Helsingborg 1.05), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Helsingborg?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.