Football · Argentina Nacional B · 15/08, 22:00
Prediction: Atletico Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano
Team pages: Atletico Rafaela · Defensores de Belgrano
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.59Total
Atletico Rafaela0.97
Defensores de Belgrano0.62
1X2
Atletico Rafaela
Draw
Defensores de Belgrano
Markets
Under 1.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Rafaela
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Defensores de Belgrano
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Rafaela
1–3–2
Defensores de Belgrano
(6 last)
- Defensores de Belgrano1-1Atletico Rafaela
- Defensores de Belgrano0-0Atletico Rafaela
- Atletico Rafaela0-1Defensores de Belgrano
- Atletico Rafaela1-0Defensores de Belgrano
- Defensores de Belgrano1-1Atletico Rafaela
- Defensores de Belgrano2-0Atletico Rafaela
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Atletico Rafaela 1498 · Defensores de Belgrano 1457
| Atletico Rafaela | Draw | Defensores de Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 37% | 22% |
| Market | 43% | 34% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.59 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Rafaela (rating 1498 vs 1457).
- H2H favours Defensores de Belgrano: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Rafaela | Defensores de Belgrano | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.5 | 2.7 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Rafaela 1–3–2 Defensores de Belgrano
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/03/26 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 25/08/24 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 07/04/24 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Defensores de Belgrano |
| 31/10/23 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Defensores de Belgrano |
| 11/07/22 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 15/08/21 Argentina Nacional B | Defensores de Belgrano | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 35 | 27 | 41 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 29 | 22 | 39 |
| 3 | Ferrocarril Midland | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 22 | 37 |
| 5 | Club Atletico Temperley | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 24 | 21 | 37 |
| 6 | Tristan Suarez | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 36 |
| 7 | Atletico Rafaela | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 34 |
| 8 | Deportivo Maipu | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 31 | 26 | 32 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 30 |
| 10 | CA Colegiales | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 30 |
| 11 | Almagro | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 27 | 30 |
| 12 | Quilmes | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 21 | 29 |
| 13 | Nueva Chicago | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 20 | 22 | 29 |
| 14 | San Martin SJ | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 22 | 27 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 18 | 24 | 26 |
| 16 | Agropecuario | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 21 | 28 | 26 |
| 17 | Patronato Parana | 23 | 4 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 23 | 24 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 22 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 19 | 39 | 19 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 25/07 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 11/07 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/06 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Defensores de Belgrano
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Club Atletico Mitre Argentina Nacional B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | CA Estudiantes Caseros Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 12/07 | Godoy Cruz Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/07 | Deportivo Moron Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/06 | All Boys Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 13/06 | Colon Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | CA San Miguel Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | CA San Telmo Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 24/05 | Acassuso Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Rafaela win (42%). Probabilities: Atletico Rafaela 42%, draw 35%, Defensores de Belgrano 22%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano?
The model expects 1.59 goals (Atletico Rafaela 0.97 · Defensores de Belgrano 0.62), with a 56% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Rafaela vs Defensores de Belgrano?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.