Football · Norway Toppserien Women · 16/10, 18:00

Prediction: Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Lyn (W)

Team pages: Bodo/Glimt (W) · Lyn (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Bodo/Glimt (W)1.06

Lyn (W)3.06

1X2

8% 14% 78%

Bodo/Glimt (W) Draw Lyn (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Bodo/Glimt (W) 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLLWL

Lyn (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWLWDW

Head-to-head

Bodo/Glimt (W) 1–1–3 Lyn (W) (5 last)

Lyn (W)9-0Bodo/Glimt (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)1-2Lyn (W)
Bodo/Glimt (W)2-1Lyn (W)
Lyn (W)0-0Bodo/Glimt (W)
Lyn (W)2-1Bodo/Glimt (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bodo/Glimt (W) 1402 · Lyn (W) 1519

	Bodo/Glimt (W)	Draw	Lyn (W)
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	8%	14%	78%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lyn (W) (rating 1402 vs 1519).
H2H favours Lyn (W): 3-1-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bodo/Glimt (W)	Lyn (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 3.4	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 2.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.9 / 1.9	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

112.00

X6.50

21.17

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.82

2 (-2.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00
X	6.25 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.56 ★
2	1.18 → 1.17▼	Bet365 1.17

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:24 +44’	10.00	6.25	1.18
15:07 +13’	12.00▲	6.50▲	1.17▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +5’	10.93	7.10	1.16
09:34 +30’	11.55▲	7.56▲	1.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bodo/Glimt (W) 1–1–3 Lyn (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	9-0 HT 6-0	Bodo/Glimt (W)
05/09/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Bodo/Glimt (W)	1-2 HT 0-1	Lyn (W)
15/05/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Bodo/Glimt (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Lyn (W)
29/04/25 Norway Toppserien Women	Lyn (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Bodo/Glimt (W)
26/06/24 Norway Cup Women	Lyn (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Bodo/Glimt (W)

Standings · Norway Toppserien Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	SK Brann (W)	18	15	2	1	54	6	47
2	Fortuna Aalesund (W)	18	14	2	2	44	17	44
3	Rosenborg (W)	18	11	5	2	33	20	38
4	Valerenga (W)	18	11	2	5	46	25	35
5	Stabaek (W)	18	8	3	7	36	20	27
6	Lyn (W)	18	7	5	6	34	26	26
7	Molde FK (W)	18	5	3	10	23	36	18
8	Haugesund (W)	18	5	3	10	25	44	18
9	Honefoss (W)	18	4	4	10	16	30	16
10	LSK Kvinner (W)	18	4	3	11	24	35	15
11	Roa (W)	18	3	5	10	18	37	14
12	Bodo/Glimt (W)	18	1	3	14	11	68	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bodo/Glimt (W)	Lyn (W)
Honefoss (W)	0-3 L	1-1 D
Roa (W)	2-1 W	3-1 W
SK Brann (W)	0-4 L	0-3 L
Fortuna Aalesund (W)	0-2 L	1-2 L
LSK Kvinner (W)	1-1 D	3-2 W
Valerenga (W)	1-4 L	2-0 W
Haugesund (W)	1-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lyn (W) (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bodo/Glimt (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	0-3	1	1	L
25/09	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
19/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
11/09	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	0-2	2	2	L
01/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
22/08	Stabaek (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-6	1-7	2	3	L
14/08	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	1-4	0	0	L
08/08	Molde FK (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
20/06	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-5	1-8	2	1	L
13/06	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-1	1-2	0	2	L

Lyn (W)

WDLLLWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Haugesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	4-3	5	3	W
26/09	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	1-1	4	1	D
19/09	LSK Kvinner (W) Norway Toppserien Women	2-1	3-2	8	3	W
13/09	SK Brann (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-3	2	1	L
31/08	Roa (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-0	3-1	6	3	W
20/08	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-2	2-3	3	0	L
15/08	Fortuna Aalesund (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
20/06	Honefoss (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
13/06	Rosenborg (W) Norway Toppserien Women	1-2	4-4	4	2	D
31/05	Valerenga (W) Norway Toppserien Women	0-0	2-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Lyn (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lyn (W) win (78%). Probabilities: Bodo/Glimt (W) 8%, draw 14%, Lyn (W) 78%.

How many goals are expected in Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Lyn (W)?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Bodo/Glimt (W) 1.06 · Lyn (W) 3.06), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt (W) vs Lyn (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.