Football · Norway Division 1 Women · 16/08, 13:00

Prediction: Arna-Bjørnar (W) vs IK Start (W)

Team pages: Arna-Bjørnar (W) · IK Start (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Arna-Bjørnar (W)1.85

IK Start (W)1.77

1X2

40% 24% 37%

Arna-Bjørnar (W) Draw IK Start (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Arna-Bjørnar (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLWLWW

IK Start (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Arna-Bjørnar (W) 1–1–1 IK Start (W) (3 last)

IK Start (W)1-0Arna-Bjørnar (W)
Arna-Bjørnar (W)1-1IK Start (W)
IK Start (W)0-1Arna-Bjørnar (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arna-Bjørnar (W) 1544 · IK Start (W) 1600

	Arna-Bjørnar (W)	Draw	IK Start (W)
Our model	40%	24%	37%
Market	40%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IK Start (W) (rating 1544 vs 1600).
High corners: 13.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arna-Bjørnar (W)	IK Start (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.3	2.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 8.3	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.7	1.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:26 +11’	2.25	3.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arna-Bjørnar (W) 1–1–1 IK Start (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Norway Division 1 Women	IK Start (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Arna-Bjørnar (W)
05/10/25 Norway Division 1 Women	Arna-Bjørnar (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	IK Start (W)
27/04/25 Norway Division 1 Women	IK Start (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Arna-Bjørnar (W)

Standings · Norway Division 1 Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	IK Start (W)	13	11	2	0	33	12	35
2	Asane (W)	13	10	3	0	24	7	33
3	Viking FK (W)	13	9	2	2	40	12	29
4	Arna-Bjørnar (W)	13	8	2	3	37	13	26
5	TIL 2020 Women	12	6	2	4	24	11	20
6	Odd BK (W)	13	5	4	4	17	17	19
7	Kolbotn (W)	13	4	2	7	20	26	14
8	Bryne (W)	14	4	2	8	12	25	14
9	Fyllingsdalen (W)	14	4	0	10	18	35	12
10	Grei (W)	13	3	1	9	23	29	10
11	Klepp (W)	12	3	0	9	17	47	9
12	Frigg (W)	13	1	0	12	7	38	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arna-Bjørnar (W)	IK Start (W)
Bryne (W)	6-2 W	2-1 W
Klepp (W)	6-0 W	2-0 W
Kolbotn (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Arna-Bjørnar (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Arna-Bjørnar (W)

LWDLWLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Bryne (W) Norway Division 1 Women	3-0	6-2	–	–	W
02/08	Klepp (W) Norway Division 1 Women	5-0	6-0	–	–	W
28/06	IK Start (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	0-1	7	2	L
21/06	Bryne (W) Norway Division 1 Women	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
17/06	Stabaek (W) Norway Cup Women	1-2	2-3	5	2	L
14/06	Klepp (W) Norway Division 1 Women	4-0	9-1	13	5	W
31/05	TIL 2020 Women Norway Division 1 Women	1-2	1-3	–	–	L
25/05	Kolbotn (W) Norway Division 1 Women	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
20/05	Rosenborg (W) Norway Cup Women	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
16/05	Asane (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

IK Start (W)

WWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Frigg (W) Norway Division 1 Women	2-0	5-0	4	1	W
02/08	Grei (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
28/06	Arna-Bjørnar (W) Norway Division 1 Women	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
21/06	Frigg (W) Norway Division 1 Women	3-0	3-1	8	1	W
14/06	Grei (W) Norway Division 1 Women	1-0	4-2	10	1	W
31/05	Klepp (W) Norway Division 1 Women	2-0	2-0	8	0	W
20/05	Viking FK (W) Norway Cup Women	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
15/05	Kolbotn (W) Norway Division 1 Women	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
12/05	Bryne (W) Norway Cup Women	0-0	2-1	5	0	W
09/05	Viking FK (W) Norway Division 1 Women	2-3	4-3	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arna-Bjørnar (W) vs IK Start (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arna-Bjørnar (W) win (40%). Probabilities: Arna-Bjørnar (W) 40%, draw 24%, IK Start (W) 37%.

How many goals are expected in Arna-Bjørnar (W) vs IK Start (W)?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Arna-Bjørnar (W) 1.85 · IK Start (W) 1.77), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Arna-Bjørnar (W) vs IK Start (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.