Football · Sweden Damallsvenskan · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Hammarby (W) vs Pitea IF (W)

Team pages: Hammarby (W) · Pitea IF (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Hammarby (W)2.66

Pitea IF (W)0.7

1X2

79% 14% 7%

Hammarby (W) Draw Pitea IF (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Hammarby (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLWWWD

Pitea IF (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLLDDL

Head-to-head

Hammarby (W) 5–1–0 Pitea IF (W) (6 last)

Pitea IF (W)1-1Hammarby (W)
Pitea IF (W)0-5Hammarby (W)
Hammarby (W)2-1Pitea IF (W)
Hammarby (W)3-1Pitea IF (W)
Hammarby (W)2-0Pitea IF (W)
Pitea IF (W)0-1Hammarby (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hammarby (W) 1580 · Pitea IF (W) 1457

	Hammarby (W)	Draw	Pitea IF (W)
Our model	78%	15%	7%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hammarby (W) (rating 1580 vs 1457).
H2H favours Hammarby (W): 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hammarby (W)	Pitea IF (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.8	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 7.1	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.80

2 (+2)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Pinn 1.19 ★
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +27’	1.17	7.00	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:45 +1’	1.19	6.34	10.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hammarby (W) 5–1–0 Pitea IF (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Hammarby (W)
16/08/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	0-5 HT 0-3	Hammarby (W)
17/05/25 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Pitea IF (W)
16/03/25 Sweden Cup Women	Hammarby (W)	3-1 HT 2-0	Pitea IF (W)
09/11/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Hammarby (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Pitea IF (W)
13/05/24 Sweden Damallsvenskan	Pitea IF (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Hammarby (W)

Standings · Sweden Damallsvenskan

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BK Hacken (W)	13	12	0	1	36	11	36
2	Hammarby (W)	13	11	1	1	31	6	34
3	AIK (W)	13	7	3	3	20	18	24
4	Malmo FF (W)	13	6	4	3	22	9	22
5	Eskilstuna Utd (W)	13	6	2	5	10	16	20
6	Vittsjö GIK (W)	13	5	3	5	13	14	18
7	Kristianstads (W)	13	5	3	5	21	24	18
8	Pitea IF (W)	13	4	3	6	13	18	15
9	Brommapojkarna (W)	13	5	0	8	17	24	15
10	Vaxjo (W)	13	4	2	7	18	23	14
11	IFK Norrkoping (W)	13	2	6	5	14	17	12
12	Djurgardens (W)	13	3	2	8	15	22	11
13	FC Rosengård (W)	13	2	4	7	16	20	10
14	IK Uppsala (W)	13	1	3	9	12	36	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hammarby (W)	Pitea IF (W)
Vaxjo (W)	5-0 W	2-1 W
IFK Norrkoping (W)	4-0 W	2-1 W
AIK (W)	4-1 W	1-2 L
BK Hacken (W)	0-1 L	1-4 L
Eskilstuna Utd (W)	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hammarby (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hammarby (W)

WWLWDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Juventus (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
05/08	Apolonia Fier (W) UEFA Women's Champions League Qualifying	2-0	4-0	11	4	W
31/07	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	5-0	14	0	W
25/07	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	4-0	8	1	W
14/07	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Women’s Friendly	0-3	1-3	–	–	L
25/06	Pitea IF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	1-1	5	0	D
17/06	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	3-0	4-1	2	1	W
13/06	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
31/05	Vittsjö GIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	2-1	6	0	W
27/05	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	1-0	7	0	W

Pitea IF (W)

WWLLWLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	BK Hacken (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-2	1-4	2	2	L
31/07	Malmo FF (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
25/06	Hammarby (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-1	2	0	D
18/06	Eskilstuna Utd (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-2	0-2	8	1	L
13/06	Brommapojkarna (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
30/05	IFK Norrkoping (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-0	2-1	3	1	W
22/05	Djurgardens (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
17/05	AIK (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
10/05	FC Rosengård (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	2-1	2-1	5	0	W
03/05	Vaxjo (W) Sweden Damallsvenskan	0-0	2-1	10	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hammarby (W) vs Pitea IF (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hammarby (W) win (79%). Probabilities: Hammarby (W) 79%, draw 14%, Pitea IF (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Hammarby (W) vs Pitea IF (W)?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Hammarby (W) 2.66 · Pitea IF (W) 0.7), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hammarby (W) vs Pitea IF (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.