Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 31/07, 20:45
Prediction: St Patricks vs Derry City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
St Patricks1.53
Derry City1.02
1X2
St Patricks
Draw
Derry City
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
St Patricks
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Derry City
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
St Patricks
1–3–2
Derry City
(6 last)
- Derry City0-0St Patricks
- St Patricks0-0Derry City
- Derry City2-2St Patricks
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Derry City: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St Patricks | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 7.5 | 1.9 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St Patricks 1–3–2 Derry City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | St Patricks |
| 16/03/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Derry City |
| 29/08/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 2-2 HT 0-1 | St Patricks |
| 23/06/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Derry City |
| 05/05/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 1-0 HT 0-0 | St Patricks |
| 03/03/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | St Patricks | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Derry City |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 25 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 50 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 21 | 43 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 43 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 39 | 37 | 36 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 35 | 34 |
| 6 | Derry City | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 31 | 29 |
| 7 | Galway United | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 32 | 39 | 27 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 29 | 41 | 25 |
| 9 | Waterford FC | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 47 | 21 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 24 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 40 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St Patricks | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| Dundalk | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Waterford FC | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| Galway United | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Bohemians Dublin | 0-2 L | 4-1 W |
| Drogheda United | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Shamrock Rovers | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: St Patricks (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St Patricks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 17/07 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 14/07 | Doncaster Europe Friendlies |
0-3 | 2-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/07 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/06 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland Leinster Senior Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 19/06 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 12/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 3 | W |
| 29/05 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Tolka Rovers Republic of Ireland FAI Intermediate Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 16/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St Patricks vs Derry City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St Patricks win (48%). Probabilities: St Patricks 48%, draw 28%, Derry City 24%.
How many goals are expected in St Patricks vs Derry City?
The model expects 2.54 goals (St Patricks 1.53 · Derry City 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in St Patricks vs Derry City?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.