Football · Republic of Ireland Premier Division · 07/08, 20:45
Prediction: Derry City vs Sligo Rovers
Team pages: Derry City · Sligo Rovers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Derry City2.17
Sligo Rovers0.86
1X2
Derry City
Draw
Sligo Rovers
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Derry City
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Sligo Rovers
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Derry City
4–1–1
Sligo Rovers
(6 last)
- Sligo Rovers0-0Derry City
- Derry City2-1Sligo Rovers
- Derry City1-0Sligo Rovers
- Sligo Rovers2-0Derry City
- Derry City3-0Sligo Rovers
- Sligo Rovers0-1Derry City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Derry City 1478 · Sligo Rovers 1427
| Derry City | Draw | Sligo Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Market | 67% | 20% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Derry City (rating 1478 vs 1427).
- H2H favours Derry City: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Derry City | Sligo Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 5.6 | 2.2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Derry City 4–1–1 Sligo Rovers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Derry City |
| 06/02/26 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Sligo Rovers |
| 05/10/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sligo Rovers |
| 12/07/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Derry City |
| 22/04/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Sligo Rovers |
| 15/03/25 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Sligo Rovers | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Derry City |
Standings · Republic of Ireland Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 40 | 22 | 51 |
| 2 | St Patricks | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 21 | 43 |
| 3 | Bohemians Dublin | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 43 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 40 | 38 | 37 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 35 | 35 | 34 |
| 6 | Derry City | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 31 | 29 |
| 7 | Galway United | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 39 | 28 |
| 8 | Drogheda United | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 43 | 27 |
| 9 | Waterford FC | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 33 | 47 | 22 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 23 | 43 | 22 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Derry City | Sligo Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Waterford FC | 2-4 L | 0-4 L |
| Drogheda United | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Shamrock Rovers | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Galway United | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Bohemians Dublin | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Derry City (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Tolka Rovers Republic of Ireland FAI Intermediate Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 16/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/06 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
Sligo Rovers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Dundalk Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 18/07 | Janesboro FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Coleraine Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Galway United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 03/07 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Shelbourne Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 12/06 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/05 | Bohemians Dublin Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Derry City win (67%). Probabilities: Derry City 67%, draw 21%, Sligo Rovers 13%.
How many goals are expected in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Derry City 2.17 · Sligo Rovers 0.86), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Sligo Rovers?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.