Basketball · Mexico LNBP · 30/10, 03:15

Prediction: Astros de Jalisco vs Fuerza Regia

Team pages: Astros de Jalisco · Fuerza Regia

Prediction summary

Estimated points

173Total

Astros de Jalisco87

Fuerza Regia86

1X2 Even — no clear favourite

53% 47%

Astros de Jalisco Fuerza Regia

The bar shows the win probability, but the expected points are almost even: the model does not lean clearly on either side.

Recent form · 10 last

Astros de Jalisco 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWWWW

Fuerza Regia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWWWLW

Head-to-head

Astros de Jalisco 3–3 Fuerza Regia (6 last)

Astros de Jalisco101-87Fuerza Regia
Astros de Jalisco74-77Fuerza Regia
Astros de Jalisco83-76Fuerza Regia
Astros de Jalisco100-88Fuerza Regia
Astros de Jalisco98-107Fuerza Regia
Astros de Jalisco63-89Fuerza Regia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Astros de Jalisco 1575 · Fuerza Regia 1546

	Astros de Jalisco	Fuerza Regia
Our model	66%	34%
Market	50%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 173 points · Bet365 line 172.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points173Astros de Jalisco 87 · Fuerza Regia 86

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	Astros de Jalisco	Fuerza Regia
Points F\|A (Last 10)	88.8 / 78	92.2 / 88.4
Points F\|A (Last 5)	89.8 / 78.6	99 / 91.6
Est. result	87	86

Est. total173

Line O/U172.5

Diff.0.5

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

11.83

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.74

Line ⓘ

Over 172.51.83

Under 172.51.83

Diff.: 1.2 · Est. total: 173.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.83▲	Pinn 1.93 ★
2	2.12 → 1.83▼	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	2
17:40 +11’	1.65	2.12
00:46 +2’	1.83▲	1.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
03:29 +18’	1.69	1.99
10:26 +21’	1.71▲	1.97▼
19:42 +13’	2.03▲	1.67▼
20:50 +5’	1.96▼	1.72▲
22:54 +52’	1.93▼	1.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Astros de Jalisco 3–0–3 Fuerza Regia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 Mexico LNBP	Astros de Jalisco	101-87	Fuerza Regia
03/10/26 Mexico LNBP	Astros de Jalisco	74-77	Fuerza Regia
05/09/26 Mexico LNBP Mid-Season Cup	Astros de Jalisco	83-76	Fuerza Regia
15/09/25 Mexico LNBP	Astros de Jalisco	100-88	Fuerza Regia
14/09/25 Mexico LNBP	Astros de Jalisco	98-107	Fuerza Regia
19/09/24 Mexico LNBP	Astros de Jalisco	63-89	Fuerza Regia

Standings · Mexico LNBP · LNBP 2026, West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Soles Mexicali	28	21	7	2382	2090	49
2	Astros de Jalisco	28	20	8	2473	2246	48
3	Lobos Puebla	28	18	10	2366	2251	46
4	Mineros de Zacatecas	28	15	13	2411	2371	43
5	Diablos Rojos	28	11	17	2294	2370	39
6	Gambusinos de Fresnillo	28	11	17	2233	2327	39
7	El Calor de Cancun	28	9	19	2276	2384	37

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Astros de Jalisco

LWWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
23/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	81-72	W
20/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	86-83	W
19/10	Mineros de Zacatecas Mexico LNBP	100-78	W
08/10	Gambusinos de Fresnillo Mexico LNBP	86-71	W
07/10	Gambusinos de Fresnillo Mexico LNBP	96-89	W
04/10	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	101-87	W
03/10	Fuerza Regia Mexico LNBP	74-77	L
28/09	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	86-67	W
27/09	Diablos Rojos Mexico LNBP	101-77	W
21/09	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	77-79	L

Fuerza Regia

WWWLLWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
24/10	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	106-97	W
23/10	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	116-120	L
20/10	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	80-76	W
19/10	Dorados de Chihuahua Mexico LNBP	101-90	W
08/10	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	92-75	W
07/10	Soles Mexicali Mexico LNBP	86-88	L
04/10	Astros de Jalisco Mexico LNBP	87-101	L
03/10	Astros de Jalisco Mexico LNBP	77-74	W
27/09	El Calor de Cancun Mexico LNBP	95-89	W
26/09	El Calor de Cancun Mexico LNBP	82-74	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Astros de Jalisco vs Fuerza Regia?

Our model does not see a clear favourite: the match is very even (Astros de Jalisco 53% · Fuerza Regia 47%).

How many points are expected in Astros de Jalisco vs Fuerza Regia?

The model estimates 173 total points (Astros de Jalisco 87 · Fuerza Regia 86).