Basketball · Chile LNB · 30/10, 00:30

Prediction: ABA Ancud vs Colegio Los Leones

Team pages: ABA Ancud · Colegio Los Leones

Prediction summary

Estimated points

158.3Total

ABA Ancud74

Colegio Los Leones84.3

1X2

23% 77%

ABA Ancud Colegio Los Leones

Recent form · 10 last

ABA Ancud 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWLLWL

Colegio Los Leones 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

ABA Ancud 2–4 Colegio Los Leones (6 last)

Colegio Los Leones85-75ABA Ancud
Colegio Los Leones78-51ABA Ancud
ABA Ancud58-56Colegio Los Leones
ABA Ancud73-68Colegio Los Leones
Colegio Los Leones79-50ABA Ancud
Colegio Los Leones92-54ABA Ancud

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · ABA Ancud 1464 · Colegio Los Leones 1550

	ABA Ancud	Colegio Los Leones
Our model	51%	49%
Market	16%	84%

Estimated total (ours) 158.3 points · Bet365 line 156.5 · +1.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

Estimated points158.3ABA Ancud 74 · Colegio Los Leones 84.3

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colegio Los Leones (rating 1464 vs 1550).
Colegio Los Leones is a clear favourite (77% market).
H2H favours Colegio Los Leones: 4-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

	ABA Ancud	Colegio Los Leones
Points F\|A (Last 10)	78.8 / 82.4	82.4 / 72.8
Points F\|A (Last 5)	81 / 81.8	82.4 / 73.6
Est. result	74	84

Est. total158.3

Line O/U156.5

Diff.1.8

The points split reflects each team's scoring pace; the win probability also factors in home-court advantage.

Odds Bet365

16.00

21.11

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+13)1.83

2 (-13)1.83

Line ⓘ

Over 156.51.83

Under 156.51.83

Diff.: 1.7 · Est. total: 158.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.35 → 6.00▲	Bet365 6.00
2	1.28 → 1.11▼	Bet365 1.11

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	2
16:33 +13’	3.35	1.28
19:41 +7’	2.85▼	1.37▲
22:31 +14’	6.00▲	1.11▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	2
03:48 +58’	3.60	1.15
06:43 +2’	3.49▼	1.17▲
12:44 +3’	2.63▼	1.34▲
13:24 +23’	2.94▲	1.26▼
15:38 +8’	2.95▲	1.26▼
17:37 +10’	2.71▼	1.31▲
19:38 +10’	3.47▲	1.21▼
20:39 +9’	5.05▲	1.08▼
21:45 +4’	5.01▼	1.08▲
22:35 +10’	4.97▼	1.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · ABA Ancud 2–0–4 Colegio Los Leones

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/10/26 Chile LNB	Colegio Los Leones	85-75	ABA Ancud
11/05/25 Chile LNB	Colegio Los Leones	78-51	ABA Ancud
05/05/25 Chile LNB	ABA Ancud	58-56	Colegio Los Leones
04/05/25 Chile LNB	ABA Ancud	73-68	Colegio Los Leones
28/04/25 Chile LNB	Colegio Los Leones	79-50	ABA Ancud
27/04/25 Chile LNB	Colegio Los Leones	92-54	ABA Ancud

Standings · Chile LNB · LNB 2026, Clausura, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Valdivia	13	12	1	1150	973	25
2	CDU Concepcion	12	8	4	1033	979	20
3	Colegio Los Leones	11	9	2	903	800	20
4	Puente Alto	13	6	7	1015	1065	19
5	Puerto Montt Basquetbol	12	6	6	936	957	18
6	ABA Ancud	13	4	9	1021	1072	17
7	Puerto Varas	12	2	10	912	1038	14
8	Espanol Osorno	12	2	10	856	942	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	ABA Ancud	Colegio Los Leones
Deportivo Valdivia	92-95 L	78-65 W
Espanol Osorno	74-68 W	81-61 W
CDU Concepcion	78-95 L	64-89 L
Puente Alto	70-78 L	90-66 W
Puerto Montt Basquetbol	80-93 L	75-54 W
Puerto Varas	72-73 L	98-84 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Colegio Los Leones (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

ABA Ancud

WLLLLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
29/10	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	92-95	L
25/10	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	74-68	W
22/10	CDU Concepcion Chile LNB	78-95	L
18/10	Puente Alto Chile LNB	70-78	L
16/10	CDU Concepcion Chile LNB	91-73	W
09/10	Puente Alto Chile LNB	77-90	L
08/10	Colegio Los Leones Chile LNB	75-85	L
05/10	Puerto Montt Basquetbol Chile LNB	80-93	L
03/10	Puerto Varas Chile LNB	72-73	L
29/09	Puerto Varas Chile LNB	79-74	W

Colegio Los Leones

WLWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	FT	Res.
26/10	CDU Concepcion Chile LNB	64-89	L
24/10	Puente Alto Chile LNB	90-66	W
11/10	Puerto Montt Basquetbol Chile LNB	75-54	W
09/10	Puerto Varas Chile LNB	98-84	W
08/10	ABA Ancud Chile LNB	85-75	W
02/10	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	81-61	W
01/10	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	78-65	W
28/09	Espanol Osorno Chile LNB	89-67	W
27/09	Deportivo Valdivia Chile LNB	77-92	L
18/09	Puente Alto Chile LNB	87-75	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in ABA Ancud vs Colegio Los Leones?

Our model gives 77% to Colegio Los Leones.

How many points are expected in ABA Ancud vs Colegio Los Leones?

The model estimates 158.3 total points (ABA Ancud 74 · Colegio Los Leones 84.3).